Back from the South

What a day - a 7am wakeup in a chalet in Queenstown, a frenetic drive to Christchurch, lunch in a still, 20 degree Twizel, a stint at Warner's pub in the Square, and a flight home for a recovery weekend.

I spent the last seven days on Young Labour's Clarion Road Tour. Fascinating beyond words, not least because of the really positive responses we got in every town - and from pretty much everyone we talked to. You can read more on that tour, and see some pics, here. It was really good to see a political party youth wing actually out talking to voters.

Challenges for the year: fending off David Farrar and Mark Blumsky in Wellington Central; I am Marian Hobbs' campaign manager and am fairly confident that the former President of the National United Future Party is not likely to be elected by savvy Central voters. Marian stands on a strong local record in seeking a third term representing the Capital in Parliament. While it will be a focus for me, the Wellington Central campaign is not going to dominate my blog as the election draws closer - there are more exciting races to watch around the country.

Other things for the year: gym; a satisfying year professionally; seeing more of family; celebrating my kid brother's engagement and later wedding; and a bit of international travel.

Back on blogging from now through to December.

Comments

[Stephen Cooper]

Marian Hobbs rules!

Your brother can hardly be a kid if he's married! ;)

[Greg Stephens]

Go Marian!!!
Mark Blumsky should be a tough challenge but Labour in Wellington is more than ready for the fight.
Bring on the United Future oops National candiate.

[span(ner in the works)]

where are you planning on travelling to? :-)

[Jordan]

Julie - Japan and Singapore at the least, hopefully a trip to Oz...

[bobo the clown]

DAMN.... who did you piss off to be lumbered with Hobbs,
good luck with Wellington Central, you're going to seriously need it.

[sagenz]

battle of the bloggers bobo. David farrar is campaign manager for blumsky. jordan obviously said so many soapy things they thought he would be best suited to waffle on through with hobo the clown.

[Max Soy]

Good luck with your campaign in Wgtn central! I have faith that the monkeys of Wellington will do the right thing and not turn themselves inward!

Re road trip: what an excellent idea! If only your Munchkin counterparts could come up with the same idea instead of wasting time and funds on backstabbing and factional intrigue.

Hope to catch up with you in the Land of Oz!

[Peter Wilson]

Marion should be more than a match for Mark Blumsky. Blumsky has a popular following from his days as Mayor, but he has nothing like the experience Marion has gained through two (or is it three) terms in office. After all, she did beat Richard Prebble - one of the nastiest, most underhand campaigners around. I would expect Marion's majority to be cut, but she'll hold the seat easily. Never ever write off Labour in an urban electorate.

Expanding on that - never ever write off National in a rural electorate either. Otago (with sitting Labour MP David Parker) will be a very interesting contest. Waitaki District Mayor Jacqui Dean is the National candidate, and stands a good chance of reclaiming the seat. That's my main concern down south at the moment.

[span(ner in the works)]

Jordan - Japan and Singapore sound ace - I am hoping to do a bit of travelling too, but I won't know where until I get there ;-)

As for Blumsky vs Hobbs - having never lived in Welly I can't really make a call, but i suspect we are going to be arguing about this until September - my wild guess at this stage is that Hobbs will hold it but it will be close.

Will be interesting to see though how the media focus on electorate races, as there are shaping up to be a number of crucial ones, eg Welly Central (which will possibly get more attention than it deserves because so many of the press gallery are based there), Epsom, Otago, possibly Tamaki, I am sure there are others.

[Jordan]

I'm interested in Northcote, Clutha-Southland, Invercargill, Epsom, the Hamilton seats, Wairarapa and Tamaki - to me those will be tighter and more interesting races than Central.

Sage - you make very unintentionally amusing comments. A smile every time. :)

[Xavier]

Why do you consider Epsom to be interesting? I think Worth has a v. good chance of keeping hold of the electorate. I don't think Rodney will get it and I don't think our young Labour whippersnapper Nash is likely to get it either...

[Stephen Cooper]

Why does everyone think Ann hartley is about to fall?

I think she stands a very good chance of being re-elected, Northcote may be on the shore but it has nothing like the attitude of Devonport (where I live)

I think Te Tai Taukarau (Dover's seat if I spelt it wrong) will be more in danger from Mr Harawira than Ann from whatever NAT they have put up.

I also cannot see Clutha-Southland (Bill English unless I'm wrong) ditching Bill.

However, I've never been to the very south of NZ, so I wouldn't really know.

The whole thing is going to be interesting, and while I agree with Xavier that Worth shouldn't be quaking in his boots, Rodney is going to run a fierce campaign by all accounts which creates the possibility of putting Nash through the middle.

PS Come on Leila Boyle :) Alan Peachey cannot be allowed to win! Imagine him as Associate Misiter of Education. (in charge or cutting funding and selling off your childrens dreams)

[Craig Ranapia]

I'd probably agree with Span on Wellington Central. Hobbs doesn't have the advantage of a divided, poorly resourced and apathetic National organisation in Wellington-Central. I was on the ground in '96, and it's pretty difficult to overstate the damage Bolger did with his "accomodations" for Prebble and Dunne.

It's also a huge advantage that Blumsky didn't have to go through a bitter selection. It may all come down to who better emulates Karl Rove's stunningly efficient voter ID and turnout operation.

As for Northcote, I understand that Hartley doesn't have a particularly strong personal following and a tendency to piss off people when she doesn't have to. Won't make much difference if Labour is riding the coat tails of a strong economy and Clark's personal following. Could be decisive if National selects a strong candidate and the party campaigns well.

A bigger picture question: Do you think the Nats have finally got a grip on MMP, and will finally run a strong campaign for the list vote?

[Peter Wilson]

We'll know for sure if National's hoardings make it clear that the party vote is the important one. Is Sowry still in charge of the campaign strategy - if he is I have my doubts about National's thinking.

Peter

[Peter Wilson]

Regarding the South - here's my pick on how it will go.

Otago - David Parker will hold it, but only just, and that will be dependant on a very good campaign in non-aligned areas such as Wanaka and Queenstown. Oamaru is solid Labour - always has been. It'll be within 200 votes though. He had a majority of 800 in 2002 - such a nice election night surprise that was too :)

Clutha-Southland - No contest for the electorate seat really - Bill English will win. What will be interesting will be the party vote. David Talbot (Labour candidate) stands a chance of increasing Labour's party vote. Labour nearly took Balclutha last time.

Dunedin North / Dunedin South - no contest, Pete Hodgson and David Benson-Pope will hold the seats. BP had something like a 15,000 majority last time, more than Helen Clark in Mt Albert :)

Invercargill - very interesting. School reviews destroyed a lot of the Labour support, but the community feeling is starting to become more positive now. Nat candidate Eric Roy is experienced, having been a list MP in the last parliament. But (first time) Labour candidate Wayne Harpur has strong networks in the city, and will appeal to blue-collar voters (he runs a medium sized metal-working business). I think Labour will hold it, with a slashed majority.

Te Tai Tonga - this could easily go the way of the Maori Party. Mahara Okeroa has little profile outside of Wellington, and the Maori party strategists are well aware of this.

[sagenz]

lost my little bet with myself that you would delete that comment jordan. nothing unintentional about it.

I hope you have a good relationship with Sue Kedgley. You will need to persuade her to stand down to have any chance. Hobbs beat a complete unknown, Hekia Parata, by only 4000 votes in 2002. Since then she has got worse. Do you think the little matter of double dipping has been forgotten? Or dont the rules of integrity apply to labour?

The left right split of list votes was 7000 in favour of left at 2002 indicating many voters thought she was a fool. that proportion of dislike will be much higher this time.
With a popular high profile and centrist candidate like Blumsky I think will kick Hobo's arse.
Craig I very much doubt that David Farrar will run a crappy disorganised campaign

[Craig Ranapia]

Sage -

Oh, I've seen up close just how good a campaign Farrar can run. That boy knows where all the bodies are buried and where to hide the new ones, metaphorically speaking of course. :) But while Hobbs is utterly useless, Labour has its share of cunning rat bastards as well & I'm sure there are plenty in the party hierarchy who would rather chew off their own arms than lose WC.

[Craig]

Have you seen who the Nats have selected for Tauranga? On the one hand, the bloke says that he wants to see Winston off, on the basis that the Tauranga electorate is getting younger, and then turns around and slags off the CUB. Yeesh. Earth to National- Blumsky aside, you'll have to select rather more social liberal candidates to offset the likes of Collins,
Nick Smith, Brian Connell, Richard Worth ad nauseum. And the electoral backlash from female, LGBT and younger voters.

Craig

Craig

[Stephen Cooper]

I've been told by someone working closely with her that Ann is well respected in the Northcote community, as she is quite active locally. She IS afterall the former Mayor, before Northcote almalgamated.

Craig R - I've always thought Hobbs was one of the better ministers. She's fun and is never in the news, apart from that one incident with fluffy handcuffs;) which means something must be going well in her ministiries.

[Jordan]

Craig R - I think we will see the first real MMP campaign from National at this election. The lack of it last time was what destroyed your vote.

[span(ner in the works)]

will be interesting to see if Maurice Williamson agrees though - his commitment to getting list votes for National in 2002 was woeful - Labour actually won the party vote in Pakuranga.

[Jordan]

As was Anne Tolley. Even Hekia Parata was campaigning for the personal vote not the list vote.

National people are not stupid. It is hard enough to credit how badly they screwed it up last time. Nobody should assume they will do the same again.

[Gooner]

I live in Northcote and all Ann Hartley does is send out a leafy pamphlet every few months. She is not very intelligent and not well thought of, despite what Stephen thinks. I can't imagine someone who works closely with her would provide an especially objective view. Just remember, she only just defeated Ian Revill in 1999 when he really was despised, and held off a poor National candidate last time (his name escapes me). National has chosen a doctor this time. Wait and see.

As for Tamaki, Parliament and the country need educationalists like Peachey. I hope he wins. A university faculty deputy dean made an interesting comment to me today - he said choosing first year students in this restricted course is nigh impossible with the NCEA in place. They have no idea how to differentiate the top students from the rest. That is shameful.

Nash has two chances in Epsom - none and buggar all. I wouldn't be surprised to see Worth campaign for the list vote in Epsom so Rodney has a clear run at the seat. Worth will get a high list place to keep him secure.

[Conor]

Jordan

You said: "the Wellington Central campaign is not going to dominate my blog as the election draws closer"

I am dissapointed, I would love to keep up with what is going on down there and your experiences with it. I would hope that DPF would be doing the same. I mean I doubt wether blogs would swing many votes but it would be good for hearing about all those little funny tid bits that pop up in election campaigns.

[dc_red]

Wasn't there a documentary made about the race for Wellington Central a few elections back (maybe the one that Prebble won?).

Agree with Conor that a blog live from Wellington Central would be pretty compelling for political junkies.

Anyone ever wondered what the NZ political scene might look like if Chris Laidlaw had held off Pauline Gardner in Wellington Central and managed to cement a place for himself in the Labour caucus (and presumably front bench?)

They sure go through MPs at a good rate down there. I assume Dunne is rock-solid in nearby Ohario-Belmont (his majority was 11,000 from memory?).

[Jordan]

Oh I'll be mentioning it - but what I mean is, I find the whole national campaign thing much more interesting than seat battles, and I hope the blog continues to reflect that.

[span(ner in the works)]

dc_red the doco you mention is called Campaign and it was made by Tony Sutorious (sp?) and premiered at the Film Fest in 1999.

i saw it there (two seats over from Prebble, unfortunately) and have seen it on video a couple of times since (the Alliance bought a copy) and it is fascinating watching. the filmmaker followed several of the candidates (Mark Thomas for National, who got the bash from his own party in favour of Prebble, the incumbent Pauline Gardiner (United I think?), Alick Shaw for Labour, Dana Glendinning for the Alliance (a Green now), can't remember if there was anyone else).

But Prebble wouldn't let them film him privately, only at the public functions. Still it is a great film - so many of the horrible moments of politics that the general public never get an inkling at, such as when Thomas finds out about his kneecapping and when Glendinning is really depressed.

You could probably get it from a film studies or political studies dept, if you are at uni, or try Videon, in Auckland, or Te Aro Video (i think it's called that) in Welly.

[dc_red]

Thanks span - much appreciated.