ACT: The Decline And Fall

With the latest polls showing ACT's support at 1% and leader Rodney Hide having no chance of winning the Epsom seat, it looks like the hungry maw of MMP is about to claim its second "major" political party. The Alliance fell out of Parliament in 2002, and odds are the same thing will happen to ACT in 2005.

What are the similarities? Are they at all instructive about what is happening to ACT now?

• Disunity. The Alliance fell out over Afghanistan; ACT fell out over its new leader, with the party organsiation fighting the caucus. It's trite but true: voters hate disunity.
• Extremism. In the context of NZ politics today, both ACT under Hide and the Alliance under Harre represent extreme points of view for which the electorate does not have much  sympathy. Trying to overcome this inbuilt difficulty (obvious when you're the most left, and right, wing party on the spectrum) requires supreme political skills. Obviously Anderton was better than Harre; and obviously Prebble was better than Hide.
• Relevance. In 2002 the Alliance's claim to relevance was limited. Their policy victories had been coopted by Labour, and their best liked public figure had formed his own micro-party. Voters on the left had a sexier brand to vote for not tainted by disunity (the Greens). In 2005, National is led by "ACT's 9th MP" and National is a serious contender for the first time since 1996. Centre right voters have a strong incentive to back a winner. ACT at 1%, disunited and dispirited, doesn't look like a winner.
• Activist drift. By 2002 many of the people who helped the Alliance win in 1999 had stopped being involved with the party. Some had (re)joined Labour; some had joined the Greens; others ran screaming from politics. The core left was limited. Now in 2005, something similar is happening to ACT. Many former activists have decamped to join National. Others have been burned off in the change to Hide's leadership.

Of course, there are important differences. Liberalism is arguably a more popular political movement in New Zealand than socialism is. ACT also had (don't know about has) far more money than the Alliance.

The similarities, though, are startling. I think the most likely outcome is that ACT will end up out of Parliament. In large part, it has nobody to blame but itself - for being too friendly to Brash; and for allowing the passions of a leadership fight to be spilled into the public arena for months at a time.

This does raise a further interesting question. Will the same happen to the Greens? I suspect not. It seems to me that only parties on the clear outside of the left-right spectrum become vulnerable to the types of dynamics that have eaten the Alliance and ACT up. The Greens have a large middle class constituency in addition to their social justice constituency, and so can't easily be placed at one end. Additionally, they seem to be more disciplined about resolving issues out of the media spotlight, with their consensus-based politics.

So perhaps we see the end of an idea that grew up in the Labour Party in the 1980s. If we do, I won't be too happy, because fracturing the right vote always strikes me as a good idea. But I won't be shedding many tears if it happens.

Comments

[sock thief]

It does seem that the days of parties to the direct left and right of Labour and National are over.

Their only justification for existing would be that they represented a purer form of Left/Right ideology and in these days of pragmatism that doesn't have much going for it. Not that ACT ever really gave the impression of having many ideals.

As for the other smaller parties, they'll continue to be the crosses the larger parties have to carry. They all exist in a world of grievance (NZF) and/or religion (UF and the Greens).

I'm happy to vote Labour just as long as the Greens don't have any influence on Science, Technology, Health and Foreign Affairs. And most Labour voters would have qualms about NZF and/or the Greens but as long as they are kept on a leash it would be tolerable.

But would Labour be able to form a Govenment if it had less votes than National (assuming NZF opts for Labour)?

[Jordan]

Depends what NZ First's position was.

[Gooner]

I still favour the left because there are more options there.

[rightkiwi]

Perhaps your comment on extremism covers it, but I think you have left out "oddness" from the list of issues.

As we read here all too often, Actoids go on and on and on and on and on and on and on ..... about how tax is theft and comlusion is evil and so on and so forth. I believe that too in principle but seeing EVERY issue as a matter of high political principle is, well, odd to most people.

For example, to take an issue, say something like whether Auckland's main A&E clinic should have been moved from Greenlane to the new hospital, most people will argue this as being about access, traffic flows, the modernity of the facility, increasing medical technology, centralisation vs devolution etc etc etc ... all a bit boring, but each can have a left and right perspective.

Actoids jump from that straight to whether the private sector should have a bigger role, to whether there should be taxpayer funding of health, to whether there should be tax at all, to whether people should die if they don't have health insurance, to whether private charity would step in etc etc etc ...

Again, you can debate all this, and it can be interesting to do so in a university quad, but really and truly ... the public is thinking "we were talking about the best location for an A&E clinic!"

The left does this too .... you could imagine remarking to an Alliance person how sad the London bombings were, and before you know it you are into a long diatribe that Bush is stupid and even fell off his bike ... and onto the role of "transnational corporations" and "Big Oil" and all you can say is "fuck off!"

This is not about being extreme but about being odd ... many Nats will think the private health sector should grow and it is stupid for the state to invest in A&E clinics when the private sector can do it etc ... many Labour people will think the liberation of Iraq and overthrow of Saddam was terrible and about oil ... but somehow they won't come across as quite as socially odd when they put the case.

Actoids can't see this. Nor could Alliance nutters. And that really sums it up.

[rightkiwi]

sorry previous comment was so long

[ZenTiger]

To the more extreme right and left wing ideologies, making minor adjustments to the tax thresholds has little real impact on the inherent problems of the system.

The middle of the road (which is slightly to the left in NZ anyway) simple creates compromises where every-one loses equally.

The points you make sound very reasonable to the natives being instructed on how best to cut their way through the Jungle.

Whilst the natives think they make excellent progress of their journey, the "actoids" on one side and the "greenies" on another have climbed the tallest tree, and both realise that the moderates are heading in the wrong direction. But doing it well.

The Greenies think the best location is the mountains to the east. The Actoids think the plains to the west.

Keep moving "forwards" and when you end up in the swamp, maybe you'll listen.

I hope it's not the east you head towards. We've tried that before. The mountains are steep. People fall off the track, and the greenies will require you to leave all your possessions behind to make the climb. Once you get to the top, they say it's worth it. You can see the plains in their full glory.

[Gooner]

Don't stereotype RK. There are extremists in every organisation. The run-of-the-mill member I know/speak to aren't like your portrayal at all.

[Chris]

*looks mystified*

[rightkiwi]

Gooner, I will take your word for it on the run-of-the-mill members, but your leader fits the stereotype as do so many of the people who comment on his blog.

[Peter McK]

Interesting - despite 3 weeks of labour campaigning and recovering "their"vote thet have managed to go backwards - they still do not sound convincing about "tax" and Prime Ministeress Helen on the TV this morning lacked any credibility or economic sense.

Act downfall is sad - but I think part of the reason is that Act supporters understand best how MMP works and in the absence of a 5% vote have relocated to other parties (aminly National) as we realise that we must not waste our vote if Act cannot get over 5% (4.9% is not good enough) Say Rodney was a dead cert for Epsom - I am sure you would see the Act vote much higher (re Prebble in 1996 in Wgtn Central)

The Greens vote is somewhat religious - but I think they will take a knock for two reasons
1. Zimbabwe may die down and it is on the back of this they have surged slightly and
2. Closer to the election I think an lot of the Green vote will roam to the Maori Party.

From This poll round Labour are panicking and I think their suppport will slip further as their moderate and centre vote will move towards the right as it is realised that labour will need the Greens, Maori and Anderton and possibly NZ First to maintain the government benches. That will not be perceived as a good thing by many of the swinging voters. I still back National with Winson (unfortunately) backing him.

One last thing - what will the Prime Ministeress have to give to all their co-alition partners in order to remain the Governemnt - something else that is very scarey. The Greens will demand 2 portfolios, (min) Winston would demand at least three and maoir party one. United may also be in the mix and Peter Dunne has been waiting for the keys to the limo to a very long time. It really will be very difficult.

[ZenTiger]

Disunity? Much of the disunity has been a newspaper beatup. But how has it been any different than say, Tamihere???

Pot. Kettle. Black.

Or are you also explaining your slide in the polls?

[Gooner]

I utterly refute ACT are extremist anyway. No time to explain except to say National is/has adopted most of them and is at 43%.

[Peter McK]

the left wing socialists love to call Act extremeists so as to scare off the moderates- for extremism Labour need look no futher than their own party - on a series of fronts we have the likes of Smarmy - Marxist, clark - feminist, carter - gay rights, Mallard (and others - unionists, plus look to potential co-alition partners - maori Party and the greens - both are extremists.

[Rich]

Surely Anderton addressed the problems in being an electable left wing politician by abandoning the left-wing bit?

[Jordan]

Rich, well, you might think that....

[rightkiwi]

Gooner has just made my point about ACT.

He says: "I utterly refute ACT are extremist anyway. No time to explain except to say National is/has adopted most of them and is at 43%."

If that is true, why is Act at one and Nat at 43? It couldn't be the public seeing the policies as extreme. It would have to be that the public sees Act as oddballs.

That's its problem.

[Psycho Milt]

Hell, I'll miss ACT - they may be a bunch of right-wing loonies, but they're also on the libertarian end of the spectrum and it's great to have libertarian MPs in Parliament, even if they do have some wingnut theories about private property and taxation. National are just a bunch of aging stodgy mooks with no class, and Labour are too full of people like Dianne Yates (every other sentence begins "I consider myself a liberal, but..."). Sigh - who's your left-wing libertarian that's too lazy to get out and actually work for a party going to vote for now? I'm kind of glad to be overseas, it means I'll be able to blame you-all when I come back and find Don and Winston running things.

[Paul]

Peter,

time to get Hodo off your computer and get back to what you were doing.

you know what, I was alliance, now green, but I too will miss ACT. At least they were able to take the more heartless policies away from the Nats, thus sending them to political oblivion.

[Paul]

hey righties, as a wind up,

anyone catch the Alliance's tax policy? pretty bloody fantastic, except I'll be paying more tax.

But at least they've put theres out there for scruutiny, as had ACT and Labour, and more or less everyone else EXCEPT national.

[Trent]

ACT may be toast on current polling, but Lord a Labour/NZ Firts/Maori/Green/Anderton/United Future deal. Heheh, now that would be fun to watch ... from Australia.

[Jordan]

It'd be fun to watch a National/NZ First govt from Paris.

What's your point? Gonna run away if you lose, Trent? Awwww....

[Paul]

Gidday mate, shrimps anyone?

All you need to do is take NZFirst out of the deal, and lookey here, is thhat the govt of the last 3 years, with a few subtle changes.

[tim barclay]

Act's demise will not hurt National. They are essentially parasitic on National and do not expand the overall centre-right vote at all. My theory is Act as a coalition partner for National actually hurt National, scared off moderate ex Labour voters. NZF will not survive Winston exiting politics. He is 60 now, please do not say he will be around until 70, groan.

[Paul]

Bugger me, it must be way too late, I almost agree with Tim.

At least we all agree on Winnie. I'd love to see someone here try to defend the smarmy bugger, would be interesting.

[Gooner]

Well that's enlightning Tim. So you want ACT to go. NZ1st will not survive Winston's exit (agreed). That leaves National and who? You Nats just don't get it. National cannot, and will not, govern alone. Who's your 10 seat friend Tim? What if Parliament is in overhang because of Maori Party meaning you need 66 seats to govern. The Nats. going to get 66 seats all alone Tim? That born to rule, head in the sand philosophy will define this election.

[stephen]

What Psycho Milt said. It is greatly to Act's credit that they've stood up for civil liberties in the past. There is nothing more heartwarming than seeing Rodney Hide and Keith Locke voting together against Phil Goff :-)

In a better world, NZ First would have carved off the interventionist economics + social conservative wing of the Nats, leaving ACT with the liberal wing, and National would die. Sigh.

[tim barclay]

Gooner you have not counted on what is happening on the other side. Labour plus greens vs National, what is wrong with that.

[Gooner]

I know Tim, I agree. I don't think the numbers are there for anyone yet! It is going to be a scrap to the bitter end.

[Paul]

Again it must be getting late, I agree with the two of you.

Lets all hope that every party can make NZFirst irrelevant this time around eh, and as you say, they are buggered without winnie.

He's got to be ready to retire to his morning cup of tea with his old dears in Tauranga soon.