Fairfax/AC Nielsen Poll: July 05

This poll was published in the Weekend Dominion Post on Saturday 16 July, under the headline "National surges to 5pt lead". The results are presented below with the results of the same poll from June in brackets.

Lab - 37 (40)
Nat - 42 (38)
NZF - 8 (9)
Grn - 6 (5)
ACT - 2 (?)
UF - 2 (?)
MP - 2 (?)
PC - ? (?)

For Preferred PM, the results are:

Clark - 39 (?)
Brash - 29 (?)
Peters - ? (?)

I'll update the question marks when I have the newspaper in front of me at home tonight. Can't find them online.

The poll also asked people about coalition preferences:

But there is ominous reading in the poll for Mr Peters. More than half (52 per cent) of NZ First supporters favour a deal with Labour, compared with just three out of 10 wanting a deal with National.

...

Forty-one per cent favour a deal with NZ First, suggesting that memories of the disastrous 1996 coalition with National may be fading. Thirty per cent of National supporters want a deal with ACT.

In contrast, Labour supporters strongly preferred the Greens as prime coalition partner.

I found the results of this poll interesting. They're consistent with the two latest polls in the gap they show between Labour and National. The poll finished on Tuesday, and the Colmar Brunton poll released last night finished Thursday.

If one took the polling seriously about which parties want whom as their coalition partners, Labour would form a government with the Greens and NZ First after the election. However, to believe this would be to rely on Winston. I'll leave you to imagine how reliable I think he is. :-)

 

Comments

[tim barclay]

Well let us see. If the voters do not think a viable Government can be formed with Peters and he is being very cagey about whom, them his suport will fall. He may well support Labour for about a year and then pull the plug when the Government gets unpopular.

[BerlinBear]

The first sensible thing I've ever heard you say on this blog Tim. Of course, you could just as well replace Labour with National in the last sentence. I'd bet on Peters to upset the apple cart before the next election no matter what coalition he is in.

I do so hope you're right about his support dropping away.