ON/CB Poll: July 2005

The latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll was out last night, confirming National's lead but showing a welcome recovery for the Greens. The results are below, while the numbers in brackets show the June and May results (in that order).

Lab 39% (41, 44)
Nat 42% (43, 37)
NZF 7% (7, 8)
Grn 6% (3, 4)
ACT 1% (2, 2)
UF 1% (1, 1)
MP 2% (2, 2)

The Preferred PM numbers are as follows:

Clark - 40% (39, 41)
Brash - 20% (20, 15)
Peters - 13% (8, 13)

The other details from the poll should be posted on the TVNZ site sometime today or tomorrow, and I'll add them when they are available (govt performance, economic optimism, etc).

I'm modestly encouraged by this poll. In the June CB poll, Nat+ACT was 45%. This month they are down to 43%. In June, Lab+Grn was 44%, and this month they are up to 45%. The poll (which is usually not Labour-friendly) also shows a modest recovery in Labour's support from the 35/36% scores of the other polls at the end of June. And of course, National has fallen, while ACT face oblivion.

Taken with the data from the Fairfax poll about coalition intentions, it's possible to make a few hypothetical statements about how voters are feeling:

• still a little miffed with the govt, which is why Labour is behind National.
• fundamentally against any lurch to the right, which is why ACT is on the verge of extinction.
• fundamentally happy with general policy settings, which is why NZ First voters (the swing vote in the centre) prefer Labour to remain in govt, and why the right track/wrong track stuff is very good for the govt.

It's a trite old saying but elections are lost by governments, not won by oppositions. National have run a very good pre-election campaign, but now the focus is starting to come on them they're looking wobblier.

If my hypotheses above about how people are feeling (which is backed up by doorstep responses, which have warmed a fair amount in the last month) are correct, then the next sequence of polls will show a small improvement for Labour and a further small decline for National. It's also worth noting, of course, that in 1999 Labour formed a govt on 38.6% of the vote.

I'm looking forward to seeing the TV debates, too - Clark and Brash each have their own strengths and foibles, and it'll be fascinating to see how they play. I'm not of the school that says Helen Clark will walk all over Brash. He's a good TV presenter, and has learned a lot in the past few months. Clark will beat him, but it won't be the walkover some excited journos might be tempted to predict.

Comments

[Paul]

Jordan, no doubt there will be the obvious head in the sand discenters, but this shows the firming up of the centre left vote.

Then god only knows where old Winnie will go, but polling of his beloveds once again shows a preference for Labour (ick).

[Max Soy]

Back on Terra Munchkinarum... thanks for the hospitality.

This poll shows a nominal improvement, with the combined green/labour vote showing an ever so slight shift leftward. I think the endgame will be played on how Brash performs in the TV debates, how the tax cut policy is released and how Labour can counter-claim with scenarios, and if Helen can use her experience to grind the bad guys down.

As for NZF in a potential coalition, Winston siding with Labour would be an anathema to his views. The only possible outcomes are a red-green or a blue-black government. The latter would be a tragedy for your nation.

[tim barclay]

National is only just now getting some publicity and its message out. The Labour ship is listing bady. If National make a major stuff-up and that presupposes Labour do not, then the thing may turn around for you. Sure Barsh will be under pressure, but he has been there before, he can handle it, but can she? Will not be an easy ride for her, and under pressure she is not flash at all.

[Paul]

Oh come on Tim,

Brash has more outbreaks of foot in mouth disease than Waihekei Island. He's weak in the house and a babbler on live tv, she can take him in her sleep.

[Roj Blake]

You really need try and run your own business Jordie, I do alot of offshore work and actually bring wealth into this country. What do you do ? You work in "Policy". Are you one of those oxygen bandits who sit around all day dreaming up regulations like banning egg and spoon races from kindergartens?

[Paul]

What is your point Roj,

you want a medal?

So you don't like the left, at least make a point out of it.

[Conor]

It was good to see the support for Labour amongst 18-25 year olds in the last couple of polls topping 52-53%

[Trent]

Yes, elections are indeed lost by Governments, what a stupid phrase, oppositions don't loose elections, how can they, they have nothing to loose?

When is Labour going to do the right thing and reimburse us for bus-shelter posters?

Perhaps doing just that would dispell the feeling that we are treated with contempt and with arrogance. Margaret excepted, she cannot be forgiven.

[Jordan]

I'd really rather not be repeating this every ten seconds, but no, I don't work for the government. And, I can't think of anything more boring or worthless to do with my life than spending it making money - either for me or for anyone else. I'd rather do something that makes a difference for people, and supports the ideals I believe in. Becoming a capitalist doesn't pass that test.

[Jordan]

Perhaps you, like your mates, haven't read the regulations that control promotion of party policy using leader's office budgets.

If you had, you wouldn't be so confused.

It's a funny thing, knowing the facts. I highly recommend it.

[BerlinBear]

Is that Roj Blake bloke for real, or is he a troll? If he's for real, I'd wonder how he thinks his offshore money making would go if noone worked in policy? Who does he think plans the directions that governments take?

Roj mate, I'd rather hear from Tim Barclay than have to read the arrogant patronising drivel you've spouted above, and *that* is saying something.

[rightkiwi]

Jordan:

You write: "I can't think of anything more boring or worthless to do with my life than spending it making money - either for me or for anyone else. I'd rather do something that makes a difference for people, and supports the ideals I believe in."

Do you make no money?

Do you know anyone (or have you ever heard of anyone) who spends their entire life "making money" as if this is their only interest and activity?

So what do you mean by "making money"?

Is making some money OK?

What if you actually "make" organic chickens or whale watching tours and sell these, and "make money"? Is that OK?

Or is that you really mean that it is OK to make as much money as you think is OK but no more?

What do you mean?

[Paul]

RK

what it means is, that for many people in this country, the pursuit of more and more money (as a means to an end in itself) is not something we aspire to.

Our household made a pledge to ourselve that when we hit an income bracket, that we would give the excess away to charities, Womens Refuge etc.

this is what we mean when we say that our lives aren't for the pursit of bank balances.

Or again is this too hard for you to get your head around?

[rightkiwi]

No, it is very easy to understand. But it comes with the assumption that people in business are somehow less worthy than you (and are making money "as a means to an end in itself"). There are no such people and your characterisation of business people reveals a snobbery that is charateristic of the left. You are all SO superior to people who invent and take risks and employ people etc. It is quite an unpleasant attitude, and in contrast to the more open and friendly attitude of most business people.

[Pip]

"Are you one of those oxygen bandits who sit around all day dreaming up regulations like banning egg and spoon races from kindergartens?"

Oh Roj. Some kindergartens have come up with that one all on their own. You know, that's what happens when you let people have a say in how things are run.

Are you suggesting the Government should put in a regulation requiring egg and spoon races? Or just a regulation saying no cultural practice which you don't like should be allowed? Do you really want this to be decided at a government policy level?

Control freak.