Polls show Labour leaping ahead

So the TV3 poll last night (Thurs) showed Labour neck-and-neck with National on 39% each.

Today's NBR poll shows Labour streaking into the lead at 41%, with the Nats on 35% - a stunning 10 point turn-around.

Both polls were taken *before* the full impact of the student loans pledge sunk into the electorate.

More on these polls later in the morning. All I can say is, the polls now reflect the vibe on the doorstep in the past few weeks.

Comments

[Graham watson]

I wouldn't get too excited Jordan, only one poll has shown this gap, you can hardly compare this result with the TV3 one, which showed a movement in the other direction despite being conducted over a similar period. There is no trend to confirm any vibe.

While its not inconceivable that the NBR poll is an accurate reflection it could equally be an aberration. There will be many more polls and changes of fortune between now and election day.

[Craig Ranapia]

And it's alway funny how when it's the other way around, the language is *ahem* a little less ecitable.

So, what have we learned from this - sleaze works, especially when you've got a lot of uncritical media coverage for it. The problem is that it's a long, long time until Spetember 17 - and I don't think either National or Labour are going to be able to keep a lolly scramble up until then.

From my experiences on the doorstep - which is the best National has had in a long time, BTW - people seem to be asking some tougher questions of every one. Good, as far as I'm concerned.

[Gooner]

The electorate is very volatile. I maintain that it will swing all over the place. One week out will be the most reliable.

[Pete]

"I wouldn't get too excited Jordan, only one poll has shown this gap"

Wrong.
Nz herald poll out today has confirmed this gap

"And it's alway funny how when it's the other way around, the language is *ahem* a little less ecitable."

Hmm, Right back at you craig, take the log out of your eye...
The logic of this is simple, Jordan backs his horse, you back yours.

[Insolent Prick]

Keep crowing your way into the opposition wilderness, you Stalinist scum!

[Tom S]

I think the public mood has swung back to Labour. National whipped up an orchestrated campaign of wedge politics, dog whistles and innuendo, all backed by an American's dollars.

National is now discovering the limits of the cantankerous vote and now the Labour campaign has started its coming back to the old Clintonian truth - its all about the economy.

[Simon]

Labor deserves this weeks swing with its student interest write off. It is up there with Clark sending the squadron to Afghanistan to kill evildoers.

[Tony]

I agree with you Jordan, this poll confirms what I've been experiencing on the doorstep the past month. I've doorknocked in Nelson, Christchurch Central, and Rakaia and the results have all been pretty similar: people have felt uncertain about Labour and where we are heading, but still supportive, and wanting to see our policy and a bit of 'fight back'. And there has been a very strong dislike of Don Brash and National, which is why I've been surprised they've been polling above Labour. But their support is much softer than Labours (from my doorknocking experience).

In the past week, the doorknocking has shifted. Those who have felt a bit uncertain have now come on board.

I know the doorknocking in Wellington, Invercarill, Kaikoura, and other areas has shown pretty similar results.

[Gooner]

Hope you didn't walk from Nelson to Rakaia Tony?

[Jordan]

This set of polls shows very little from the student loans policy announcement.

[Tony]

um, no, I have a car :) It would be a very long walk...