ON/CB Poll: August 2005 #3

The latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll was out last night, showing the anticipated narrowing of the gap in the wake of National's tax cuts pledge, but solid Greens support. The results are below, while the numbers in brackets show the results of the second and first August polls (in that order)

Lab 43% (45, 45)
Nat 40% (37, 41)
Grn 7% (6, 3)
NZF 5% (6, 5)
ACT 2% (2, 2)
UF 1% (1, 1)
MP 1% (1, 1)

The Preferred PM numbers are as follows:

Clark - 45% (43, 41)
Brash - 27% (21, 25)
Peters - 7% (8, 9)

I was talking to a few journalists last night at the launch of Labour's youth affairs policy, and they were as surprised as I was by this result. I think living in the Wellington bubble, we'd all shared quite a build up about National's tax policy. It's becoming clearer that collectively, we overestimated the impact of it.

Anecdotally this is the case.  I have friends campaigning all around the country, as candidates and volunteers, and the messages coming back are that the tax release made a shock, but has now been banked and people's eyes have moved on a bit. We continue to get friendly responses in the oddest places - doorknocking in Wadestown, for example, one of the safest National areas in Wellington Central, shows a favourable response to Labour and Hobbs to a larger extent than in 2002.

I was afraid, because I am a little cynical about voters sometimes, that we'd be well behind in this poll. The fact we are ahead is very good. The fact that the combined Labour/Green vote only fell 1%, and the combined National/NZ First vote only rose 2, in the wake of the "king hit", is wonderful news.

So this week we'll see more relentless negativity from National, trying to stir up racial division again by Treaty-bashing, because things are going so well and they have so little real policy, they are reduced to dog-whistling their way through to 17 September.

To top it all off, it's a gorgeous day. Sign waving at 7.30am wasn't even cold this morning!

Comments

[Amanda Hill]

I saw the signs this morning - keep up the hard work Jordan, and let me know if you need any help:)