3 News/TNS Poll: September 05

TV3's latest political poll came out last night, showing a sharp improvement for Labour and sharp collapse for National. This is a 17 point change in the margin compared with Sunday's One News CB poll. I have never heard of an election with such enormous volatility.

Some suggestions about what may be going on:

• The One News poll was a total rogue, and this represents the true picture. Maybe, but not likely.
• Support is sloshing around like crazy. Maybe - people decide late these days.
• Both polls are rogues and the reality is in the middle. Not very likely.

At the end of the day, nice as this poll was to hear about yesterday afternoon, it has now been superceded by a) Peters' call on not supporting any particular party, and b) the scandal of Brash and the Bretherens.  (I cannot bring myself to call it Bretheren-gate.)

Herald poll out tomorrow, will be interesting indeed!

The numbers, with the results of the previous August polls in brackets (and 18-21 August) for comparative purposes. Looks like a Labour/Greens government, from this:

Lab - 45 (39, 41)
Nat - 36 (41, 37)
Grn - 7 (6, 7)
NZF - 5 (6, 8)
ACT - 2.4 (1.4, 1.4)
UF - 1.5 (1.7, 2.1)
MP - 1.7 (1.7, 1.8)
Prog - 0.3 (0.8, 0.3)
Dest - 1.0 (0.9, 0.5)

On the Preferred PM stakes:

Clark - 39 (37, 37)
Brash - 21 (23, 21)
Peters - 9 (10, 11)

There are some other interesting stats in the full poll. Undecided voters are down to 10%,

Helen Clark is performing "well" according to 65% of voters; and "poorly" according to 23%.

Don Brash is performing "well" according to 42% of voters; and "poorly" according to 33%.

Clark's personal qualities are way ahead of Brash on most issues, apart from the obvious one of economic understanding. Good positive indicator that people think NZ is becoming a better place to live in (48%, versus the 36% moaning minnies).

More detail at www.tns-global.co.nz.

Comments

[spector]

It seems the 'polls' are looking about as acurate and reliable as 'the worm'. Come election day there will be some very red faced people at either TV1 or TV3.

[Jordan]

Or Both, when the Alliance storms to power...??!

[Craig Ranapia]

Jordan:

I don't know about the utility of comparing polls when they appear to use significantly different methodologies, and I very much doubt they use identical questions asked in the same way.

Having consistently been in the "polls are voodoo without chicken blood" camp for years, the schadenfreude as the media descends into utter bewilderment is delicious.

Mad as this may sound, if the all the polls get the real poll wrong we may even see the polling budgets spent on... properly resourced newsrooms full of reporters who aren't going to bolt at the sniff of a PR company expense account. Stranger things have happened.

[Jordan]

Craig, nah. Surely not. What would they report on, if they could not report on their own polls.

I recall a major inquiry in the UK into polling techniques after all the polling companies predicted a Labour victory in 1992, which failed to materialise. Maybe our pollsters need a similar look at themselves, post-election.

[Simon]

National scored 21% in 2002 and have since sucked 5% each from ACT & UF to give them 31% as a base from 2002. The polling would suggest National have only increased their own base of 21% to 26% which seems too light.

I think (but what the hell would I know) that Nationals vote is closer to 40%.

[tim barclay]

The polls do not predict the abstention rates. I am picking that National voters are more likely to vote this time than Labour. I also note 1993 which greatly overstated National and Jim Bolger made his famous remark bugger the pollsters. Do not see that ring of confidence in the Labour camp and they are being quite cautious about this result.

[Jordan]

The only weird thing, Tim, is that you seem to think Nats are the only people motivated to get out. Well that's clearly crap. I've never seen the left so united and activated about an election campaign.

[tim barclay]

Jordan you Labour people have always had trouble motivating your voters, that is well understood. I will take a bold punt and say come the day that will be realised. Your policies are just too complicated for people to be motivated whereas National's are easy. The left constituency is not that large in NZ, look at all the concessions Helen has had to make. Last time there was an abnormally low poll caused by high abstention in National voters. No so this time.

[Jordan]

You don't know what our supporters have been told about the election though Tim. :-)

[spector]

I tend to agree with Jordon on voter turn out Tim. It's fair to say that a fair amount of people that traditionally have Labour leanings can't be arsed going to vote... but the mood of the country is very political at the moment. I've seen heaps of Labour/National arguments at work, in the pub, down the street etc... I can't remember NZ ever caring as much as they do this year. I suspect we will have the highest level of voter turnout ever this time round. I was at the rugby last week and people were arguing about the election during the game!

[Aj]

Craig:~

Referring to your final post on the Mr Burns post, and copied to here in case your didn't notice.
{And for the rest of you, no doubt some light relief:-)}

"Oh, too cute sweetie"

Thought I'd just give you a "heads up" Craig - you seem have been incorrrectly picking my gender the last few days. When I woke up this morning, I was a male. Definitely, quite "hard" to mistake, so to speak :-)
Same last night, actually :-))

Now, I figure, there are only three things that might have impressed you otherwise.

1/ A genuine error.

2/ Less likely - perhaps you are not heterosexual. Don't get me wrong, some of my best friends are gay. I supported the Homsexual Law Reform Bill. And if indeed this is the case - but I really think it's unlikely - then I'm flattered. But I'm married, sorry.
{By the way, if you are closet, hope I haven't outted you}

3/ Even less likely, it's a put down. Now, I think you are a fairly bright cookie. You don't need to resort to petty putdowns like that to win arguments. If you did, your argument must be rather weak in the first place. Actually, I only came up with #3 as sometimes you get quite snarky in your comments.

Anyway - there we go. No response neccessary, as 1>2>3 I don't really care. {Although if #2 - how sweet}

I'll probably post this again if you come to this blog today - wouldn't want you to miss it.

[tim barclay]

It is not overall turnout, it is differential abstention. That is whose voters are more motivated to vote. I am taking a punt National's will be more motivated this time. Labour does seem to be short of money raiding the parliamentary service leaders fund. National had to do that last time.

[Leftbane (TM)]

You spinning Stalinist serpent forget to raise one possibility: this poll is a rogue and the last poll represents the real position.

I can't wait on Saturday night to cackle maniacally while you burn!

[Craig Ranapia]

Aj;

I can;t for the life of me remember why, but I have assumed you're a woman - and please accept my apology for (unwittingly) giving you an on-line sex change.

And if I got a bit snarky, again, please accept my apology. I actually find it offensive to have it implied that I'd tolerate vandalism of Labour/Green hoardings. My attitude toward such thuggish and cowardly behaviour is absolutely zero tolerance.

I've been involved in many political campaigns over the last fifteen years, and I respect everyone - even those I vehemently disagree with - who gets off their arse and involved in the democratic process. It's so easy to cynically bitch and whinge on the sidelines. Trying to change things is hard work, and often hugely frustrating. It would be nice if some folks on all sides of the political specturm would think about that, now and then - and not immediately assume that those who think differently are evil jerks with some covert agenda.

[Aj]

Craig,

Unreservedly accepted.

If you get any shit over #2 or #3 please refer them to me.

[Aj]

Craig - ps.

No offense intended.

[Insolent Prick]

You might think you're a guy, Aj, but you write like a frigging girl.

[Aj]

Have you got your law knowledge sorted yet IP.
A little limited, but in view of that post it doesn't surprise me.
Insults always make up for a lack of intellect.

[Paul]

IP,

jesus you are a sad bugger, good luck trying to 'shag chicks' when you tell them you blog with us geeks and pick up on gramma and spelling.

Tim, as stated by Jordan, National voters don't hold a manopoly on voting to keep the others out.

Leftbane, extinguuishers at the ready, you might just self combust sat week. Nice day to you too.

[Paul]

And look, this time last week, we had right wing folk wetting their beds with the excitement of ridding this country of the scourge that is the red tidal wave on the back of one poll.

My god, I'd love to be sitting here now (to quote Tim) trembling at the prospect of (quote leftbane) tories 'burning', but the polls are only a snapshot and we all know time and time again, the only poll worth a toss is Sat week.

This is a great poll (if to be believed) for Labour and Green (the worst possible nightmere for oh so many of you here), and after Don breaking out with 'foot in mouth' disease over the last 24 hrs, things may improve for the left further.

But then again they may not, lets see sat week shall we?

[ammonia]

IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT [AND I FEEL FINE]

As a bloke trying to run a very small business with only a couple of employees, I absolutely detest Helen Clark and its brand of inwardly focused, distributionist neo-socialism.

Rightly or wrongly, I see Clark as a dangerous zealout, with a strong anti-success ideology and a lofty disdain for the practicalities of running a small business. Employing
people and ensuring they are paid every week is most often not easy, and this government, with members comprised almost exclusively from the coddled world of academia, or union backgrounds are instinctively unsympathetic to such matters, despite the wealth and employment that all small NZ business enterprises contribute to the domestic economy. Labour were once a GOOD party, right up to the point where Mike Moore got knifed.

Now, Paul, before you frantically hurl your characteristic shrill abuse at me after reading that first paragraph, please hear me out !

I do however agree with you guys that National are not in a postion to govern effectively.

Don Brash, with his contradictory statements and flip flops, have only served to make him
look incompetent or weak. [well both actually] It is often embarrasing to watch, in politics if you can't or don't want to answer a question you skillfully talk around it, fuzzing over the original point. I don't know whether he's too old and has lost his sharpness or it's due to sheer inexperience, and I don't really care. It all serves to detract from their policy positions, which in fact, a large section of the electorate does empathize with.

To my mind, National won the 1990 election by default really, especially with the fractionating
of the Labour Govt after Lange's famous "cuppa tea". Then, after their first two terms, the Bolger/Birch brigade hung on for too long leaving the party devoid of fresher membership within the upper echelons of its heirarchy. If Labour wins a third term, and that is very likely, don't expect Clark to stay the full term. It obviously has other ambitions, and it most certainly will end its career in NZ politics on its terms not be left to eventually be outsted from the leadership if, say, Labour loses in 2008. It was a crazy situation of National to be in when they actually needed to look to a 60+ first timer list MP to lead them on the path to salvation. Labour is an extremely well oiled political machine; no, the Nats have to do much better than this win the Treasury benches. Who'll lead the Nats after Brash goes, Brownlee ? Oh dear.

I'm not war mongering, environmentally reckless capitalist, I'm just trying to better my life,
and my families life, without the reliance on anyone else's money, on Govt handouts.

We're, off to Oz, with the bizz, maybe I'll see ya in 2008+

Cheers

Henry Van Osch

PS: Paul, Is your Mr/Mrs not putting out or what ? Stop posting 24/7 trying to get the last word in. See ya in 2008 gripper !

[Aj]

ammonia,

Goodbye, and good luck. Your departure may raise the IQ of both countries.

[Paul]

Ammonia,

shrim on the barbie?

FYI, I am a web developer and am actually working, as I am on line to well into the wee hours also trying to better my family. But in contrast to your ideal of a labour leach, I was at work at 8:15am this morning and am still going now ans will probably be till I get the job done at about 2-3am.

Then get up and get my wife and kid to work and crech and back into work. Shock fucking horror and socialist not taking off the state.

Good luck in OZ with higher taxes than here, with crap racial equality, but seriously good luck

And fuck you too, wife not giving out, WTF?

[Paul]

Bugger, see what 18hr days does for the dyslexia.

Shrimp people shrimp.

[Aj]

Kiwiland

Highest growth in oecd
Lowest unemployment oecd
Taxation in the lower third of oecd
Plaudits from oecd for Economic Management

Another day in Paradise.

[Aj]

I thought you meant 'scrim' on the barbie

[Paul]

Anything sour will do, as long as the grapes are sour too!

[soren.lorenson]

both polls are rogues and the reality is somewhere in the middle. National have risen as far as Labour has sunk.

[Sam]

I'm with ammonia on everything but the move to Aus. Firstly, I could never put up with the twang, and secondly, NZ is one of the easiest countries in the OECD to run a business. Despite the current state of politics, NZ is still a great place to live, work, and play!

Roll "God defend NZ/Haka/half-naked war dances".

[Anita]

Have there been any public polls showing 2002 voting choices compared to 2005 preferences?

In particular it'd be interested to know where the melting United Future and NZ First vote has trickled to.

[Craig Ranapia]

Anita:

I think Auckland Uni. traditionally does a post-election study of that, and many other, questions. And I think that's an appropriate time and place for that kind of work to be done. We seem to have an electorate about as decisive as I am when choosing a cardigan on a cool evening...

[Rich]

If Labour win and all the Nats leave who say they're going to we should be looking at 60%+ in 1998.

[Rich]

oops I meant 2008

[Insolent Prick]

Good point, Rich.

Except all the people who remain will have starved to death, because there won't be enough taxpayers to pay for Labour's trough.