Fairfax/AC Nielsen Poll: Sept 05 #2

This poll was published in the Dominion Post today, under the headline "National 6 points in front" The results are presented below with the results of the same poll from earlier this month in brackets.

Lab - 37 (41)
Nat - 43 (44)
NZF - 7 (4)
Grn - 6 (5)
ACT - 1 (1)
UF - 3 (2)
MP - 1 (1)

For Preferred PM, the results are:

Clark - 43 (41)
Brash - 36 (34)

National hold that large lead in Auckland, which is intriguing, National one point ahead in Wellington and in Christchurch. The gender split has closed up a bit and the age split has done the same - Labour leads among 18-24 but all other groups National leads.

Not a good poll, again, but let's see what TV3 and TVNZ say tomorrow, and Herald and NBR on Friday. I bet the electorate are feeling rather polled out. :-)

This poll also answers my earlier post - the Brethren thing is not a Corngate equivalent.

Comments

[Glenn]

Jordan, I'd be interested on your pick as to how soon Clark will be rolled once she loses the election, and who you're backing for replacement.

[Aj]

I don't think this election is cut and dried yet. By a long shot.

[Craig Ranapia]

Glenn:

Now that's naughty... ;)

[tim barclay]

Labour is not out for the count. Indeed the mood is not so much anger with Labor, it is more about thanks Labour but where do we go from here. Labour is promising much the same but with the added demands of the Greens. That is more taxes. That is where Labour is having a problem in Auckland. They do not accept that Labour with the Greens in tow will make any progress on gridlock. That is my theory on the Auckland problem for Labour. I just do not think Helen Clark will want another repeat of today's headlines in the Herald. How does she manipulate that I wonder. I just wish the media will realise the extent to which she aims to manipulate them.

[Jordan]

No, the game is not yet over. I say, wait until Saturday night before making any predictions. :)

[Peter McK]

a very interesting comment by Prebble on TV last night - he said in reference to his time with Labour something to the effect "Labour supporters need a fire in their belly before they will vote - that fire is missing" I agree with Prebble - but I especially like the comment by smarmy this morning "he is detailing what is wrong with National, he complains:

It wants a future where people make their own decisions about their own money." - as a marxist he just does not understand it - he in confused. he is a goner.

I expect to see a firming of national's lead.

As my good friend David Hodo said "under the MMP system this election will be the closest thing to a landslide we could expect."

cock-a-doodle-doo.

[Aj]

Tim,
"Indeed the mood is not so much anger with Labor, it is more about thanks Labour but where do we go from here"

That may well be close to the nub of the matter.
We never hear about the undecided vote in these polls ?

[Tom S]

The polls for the past fortnight have be skewed to produce headlines, not reasoned analysis. I remain optimistic ahead of Saturday of a Labour - led government.

And if not? Don Brash gets to govern with Winston. No tax cuts, no stability, see you all back on the hustings in 18 months.

[dc_red]

What on earth has happened that would cause NZF support to almost double since the last poll, I wonder?

[GPT]

Jordon, I think the poll on Saturday night is now the most relevant one. I actually wonder how much the Brethren thing helped you guys. It was a pleasant distraction but I wonder if it excited the entrenched politicos (and media) more than the general electorate. It may have crowded National's message but it didn't completely block it out AND National stayed on message. I wonder if Labour's focus on trying to convince the public not to vote National has been a success - given that the swinging voter (apparently) turns off on the 'scandal' politics?

Anyway, roll on Saturday night. Win, lose or drawn at least those of us on the campaign trail can get a decent nights sleep again!

[Paul]

Fairfax-ACNielson

..........................Sept August July June
Labour .................37% 42% 37% 40%
National................43% 41% 42% 38%
NZ First ................7% 6% 8% 9%
The Green Party.......6% 6% 6% 5%
United Future .........3% 2% 2% 2%
The Maori Party.......1% 1% 2% 2%
ACT ......................1% 1% 2% 2%

this is too close, nobody should be counting any eggs or gloating yet

[Millsy]

All Hail Our New National Corporate Overlords!

It looks like Don Brash will be PM, and our schools and hospitals will be sold by lunchtime.

I personally belive that our public health system is more important than tax cuts.

By the way, nice new theme, Jordan..

[tim barclay]

Oh no, Millsy is back, but without the expletives. Do not think schools and hospitals will be sold by lunchtime, but I do think there is room to franchise the management to a private group of people like the private prison model.

[Chris]

How was Myanmar Millsy?

[George]

This presents a major a challenge. Thousands of New Zealanders will accept the tax cuts and simply see what happens!

Intuitively, they realise that they will pay in other ways. I dont know all implications, but one imagines that interest rate hikes, overseas exchange rate adjustments could all be unfavourable.

Slashing the 'bureaucracy' is all very well, but costs will felt with reduced public service and reduced public protection.

Education is a perfect example. Slash the "bureaucracy" and put unbridled power for schools into each community? They must be joking!

Meanwhile merrily build lots of boys highs and girls highs, to achieve nothing more than parent choice.

The only research that they have done is market research. Important markets being ACT and the Business Round Table.

I actually think National will be embarrassed by victory. Part of me says good luck to 'em, I WILL take the Tax Cuts, and see what happens in 3 years time!

Will the voters really want us to go back to the 90s?

Regards
George

[Millsy]

National is going to win, bar a miracle.

I have said it to many people - the voters knew what they were in for, they knew that Don was Ruth in reverse-drag, they knew that you cannot pay for tax cuts just by axing a few hip hop tours, radio sing-along courses and public service tea ladies, they have nothing to blame but themselves.

Tho, Labour is to blame for losing the election as well...they blew a 10 point poll lead in May, they could have made this country one of the greatest places on earth....but they blew it. I hope that Helen and her senior cabinet ministers have the grace to stand down after the election and let some new blood take over.

[Insolent Prick]

Don't you think that the true reason that Labour will have lost this election, Millsy, is that the Labour Party is stacked with petty-minded, defeatist losers like yourself?

And don't you think that Don Brash's great crime, as far as the Left is concerned, is that he's exposed your agenda to turn us into the North Korea of the South Pacific, and that the public are resoundingly rejecting that recipe?

[Millsy]

You well and truly deserve your name, Prick.

You right wingers are idiots, you think that Brash is some Messiah, who is about to rescue New Zealand from the evil socialists who want to steal your precious bodily fluids.

[Insolent Prick]

Yes, and we're going to sell the public hospitals and schools, and ban trade unions, and eliminate the dole, and get rid of the liberal arts departments at every New Zealand university.

And you know what you can do once we've done all that, Millsy?

Yes, that's right.

You can EAT SHIT!

[Paul]

IP,

if you think you are going to shout Milsy down, good luck. This stauch defender of the left is not one to be abused.

Go Milsy.

[Millsy]

I have never had shit before, Mr Prick, it looks to be a novel experience, is it going to be liquid shit, or lumpy shit? Will it be sauteed with herbs and spices or just plonked raw on the plate? Will it be your shit, my shit, or Dr Brash's shit?

I cannot wait for this new experience in dining....