Nothing much today

It's odd - there is a lot of work going on around the country and in Wellington Central, but I have entered a slightly calmer patch. I think everyone following this election is by now thoroughly confused. When even a seasoned election watcher like Colin James will say:

"My instinct is that she will make it over the line - but never in 12 elections as a political journalist have I been less confident of my instinct. That's Brash - and tax cuts - for you."

then there can be little certainty from a relative newbie to politics like me. Tomorrow's polls will give a bit of a steer but things have been moving.

What I do know, talking to the seasoned campaigners, is that this does not feel like a losing election. It doesn't have the air of 1999, or 1990, or 1984, or 1975, so I am told. The problem is that I have only been part of winning campaigns for Labour, and this doesn't feel quite like one of those either.

Another weird thing (to me anyway): at last night's final Public Meeting of the Wellington Central campaign, nobody mentioned petrol tax cuts. It was a slightly more polite meeting than the rest have been, with the rent-a-mob of both sides considerably outnumbered by locals. Thank goodness.

Four sleeps to go... thank goodness...

 

Comments

[tim barclay]

You ahve obviously been instructed not to comment of Philip Field using an illegal immigrant to get some ultra chep work done on his house in Samoa.

[Paul]

Tim

everyday is a scandal in your world.

What happend to that stupid bint student at Otago, that was meant to bring the govt down wasn't it.

As for scandal of the day, the Herald site has a this and that on helen and Don.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=1&ObjectID=10345321

this will bring any govt down if nothing else will, about helen.

"* Microwaves half-drunk cups of tea. Doesn't own a dishwasher. "

thank god I'm not famous or never intend to be, what else is a microwave good for apart from defrosting, and I only got a dishdrawer a month ago.

[Aj]

See the National Party brownshirts in action this afternoon exercising their right to shout a meeting down.
Pig ignorant.
Well organised, between them they wouldn't have a brain to rub together so obviously organised high up in the party.

[James]

Actually the "brownshirts" are from your side of the spectrum aj....Good little Socialists all...

[geoff]

Hi Jordan

It is quite an unpredictable one. It could swing on the basis of a small number of percentage points and who knows what will swing those points.

My pick is that an overhang for the 'Last Cab off the Rank' may save the Government from defeat.

Were you surprised that Labour was only prepared to back 61% of the environmental commitments being sought by Forest and Bird, ECO and Greenpeace?

Although Labour's energy and conservation policies look good.

Food for thought.

[GeniusNZ]

betting odds are about as good as you can get for predictiong who will win.

I still expect helen to remain as PM - I think she still has the advantage in the betting odds (last time I checked anyway).

[SPC]

An MP gets an overstayer out of the country, while his case is heard. Provides him with a job to tide him and his family over.

Gaining a future vote by the sound of it.

The Minister knows nothing of this and just decides the matter based on the whether the person has job skills and has socialised here.

There has been nothing wrong here.

[Aj]

"National" socialists, James.
National.
Facists.

[Tiberias]

I imagine he was paid above the average wage for Thailand or Samoa.

Not exactly a good look, but if this is the sort of pissant scandal national can come up with then it sorta pales in comparison compared to replacing every top job in an the beuracracy of an entire superpower with a political crony like a certain right wing government I know seems to have managed in the last 5 years.

Just blogged about this actually:

http://tiberias.blogspot.com/2005/09/dangers-of-crony-capitalism.html

[Chris]

Jordan, will you be at Vic tomorrow to watch the PM get destroyed like she did at Canty today?

[James]

"Under every Black/Brown shirt beats a red heart..."

But I agree National can be big Govt bastards too...thats why ACT in there to watch them! ;-0

[Daniel Webster]

Don't worry, Jordan. It doesn't matter how the election feels. All that matters are the results on the night.

I think we'll pull through. And even if we don't, the Nats will lose so much credibility so quickly (with their inability to deliver on their promises) that I doubt they'll last more than a term. That is, of course, assuming that they can hold government together for a single term, which seems doubtful at this stage.

Either way, it's bad news for National in the end.

[Paul]

James & Chris.

"destroyed like she did at Canty today"

So reasoned political debate is several dozen young nats and act Jr's screaming at the top of their lungs at a political opponent.

What ever happend to riposte and cunning.

Twats every single one of thier mummy-paying-for-their-tutition little dear souls.

You could actually see the vein popping of the skinny one who got all excite that he was being filmed.

Still at least she's been on campus, where's wally?

or would we get another one of those, you are all marvellous speaches, then for the press conference spite the bugger behind their back.

What a spineless wanker, this prick must be defeated at all cost, no wonder Maori are terrified of him.

[Paul]

Actually

The thing that gets my goat about elections more than anything else is how the media builds these people up as celebrities fueling their already stunning egos.

Now this goes for the both the left of the spectrum.

These people are Public Servants, no more and no less. Some do a stunning job, some need to be shot, but they are still public servants just like Hacker, Sir Humphrey and all the other characters of Yes Minister.

Thank god the bloody election is nearly here, and all this feather display can be put away for another 3 years.

Question for ya'll. 4 year terms &/or an upper house, your thoughts?

[dave]

Well Jordan, Your party is behind in the polls yet again and you still haven't written about Taito Philip Field.
whats going on? Are you covering this election or not?Have you nothing to say or have you run out of steam?

[Chris]

Paul, what does "this prick must be defeated at all cost"

mean?

"Twats every single one of thier mummy-paying-for-their-tutition little dear souls."

Nice.
a) obviously you haven't had any tuition, given your spelling.
b) you don't know the first thing about me, or who pays for my education.

[tim barclay]

I am still baffled at why she is going around Universities. Perhaps she is trying to get the lout element to get the public to feel sorry for the old dear. I dunno but the students looked like a bunch of the ungrateful hoons they are, free money etc. Not much upside for her, ranting on about nuclear bombs and Iraq. Seriously odd.

[GeniusNZ]

> mummy-paying-for-their-tutition

As I understand it most right wing parents dont pay for their childrens tuition. It is the left leaning parents that do that where they can afford it. And the asian parents as well (who are also, statistically, left leaning as far as i know).

[weizguy]

"As I understand it most right wing parents dont pay for their childrens tuition."

Ah, but it isn't the parents' political leanings that are important - It's the kids'. I find it funny that every ACT or National supporter I have met at varsity have their costs paid by their parents.

When we started talking about mummy and daddy paying at the Aro Hall meeting, the young Gnats were swiftly silenced.

[Aj]

I've paid for my kids costs so far, not a bean taken up in student loans.
I practise self-responsibility, the Nats only preach it.

Key's advocates mis-using the system.
His Listener profile four or five weeks back, where he argued that the removal of interest from student loan debt will lead to “people establishing businesses to encourage students to maximise their student loans. Students will take loans at no interest, invest them at a low rate and the money will be re-invested for a higher rate”
Let’s examine what happens in the real world. – if students are drawing a full allowance to invest rather than use it to pay for living costs, then who will cover the living costs? Parents will have to {if they have enough spare income}.
Even if parents have that sort of ‘spare’ cash, and only a very small number will, the simple fact is it will be a zero sum equation. It doesn’t matter if the student allowance is invested, or if the parents invest the money they would use to replace the allowance with themselves. Does he really think he can fool people into believing the markets get different returns depending on where the money is sourced? Mmost Kiwi families mortgaged to the hilt and deep in credit card debt, the best investment they can make is use spare cash to reduce debt. No low or medium risk market investment can beat the tax-free return of paying down debt. Simple as that, and any honest financial advisor would recommend that path.

[Craig Hall]

It's also worth mentioning that any Student Allowance that a student gets is deducted from the living costs payable e.g. a Student Allowance of $100/wk means that the maximum living costs that student can receive is $150/wk - $100/wk = $50/wk. Also note that students can't draw down living costs in a lump sum these days (and haven't been able to since 1998) - they can only get it paid out weekly, and any week missed can't be borrowed later.

With the current rules (and they've been in place for 7 years), it's actually reasonably tough to play the system, and, even if a student does decide to borrow all of it and invest it, the ~$7000 p.a. ($150 * 40 weeks + $1000 course costs payout) will collect $700 (less tax), if they're either lucky or good (10% is a solid return). About the worst that could happen is a budding entrepenur could put $20,000 aside as an interest-free loan to start some sort of business, which would require working ~20 hours/wk to live while studying, which if it succeeds is good, and if it fails, is hardly the end of the world, because it still has to be paid back somewhere along the line (the IRD collect the payments at 10% of your annual income above ~$15000).

[Aj]

Craig'
"invest it, the ~$7000 p.a. ($150 * 40 weeks + $1000 course costs payout) will collect $700 (less tax), if they're either lucky or good (10% is a solid return)"

It won't be that much in the first year, you are only slowly building up the sum to that by the end of a year, and you only get 2-3$ interest until you have a lump sum of $2000 or more at most banks. If you can find anyone offering 10% starting of with the first $150 let me know :-)

[Paul]

Chris thanks for your kind thoughts, you are of course correct my spelling is atrocious, but that isn't down to my Masters Degree failings or any other leftist educational system failings, but due to the simple problem of Dyslexia.

marvellous thing the internet, anyone can accuse anybody of anything because they don't have to defend their actions, and they don't have that ackward issue of having to say sorry to their face.

Funny, the 3 schools I taught at all made no issue of my Dyslexia, nor did any of my students, in fact I'm sure it helped their spelling as I made them aware of it from day one and it became a class game to catch my spelling.

the worse part of it was still looking at the blackboard after a word was pointed out and still not seeing the mistake, I bloody hate it, but that does not preclude me from having a pokitcal voice.

I am sorry my inability to spell every single word offends you so.

[Craig Hall]

"It won't be that much in the first year, you are only slowly building up the sum to that by the end of a year, and you only get 2-3$ interest until you have a lump sum of $2000 or more at most banks. If you can find anyone offering 10% starting of with the first $150 let me know :-)"

First I have to find a bank that will give 10% on any amount! I was more thinking debentures in Hire-Purchase based finance companies (e.g. Pacific Retail Finance, but there are plenty to choose from), which have higher returns and less required starting capital. You can also get the $1000 course costs as a start on accumulating the deposit. That said, a more likely return is 8% (less tax), and even then it's not on the full amount, since it comes over the whole year, as mentioned. All in all, not exactly the path to untold wealth...

[Millsy]

Tim, do you actually do anything else besides sit on the internet and whine about how the socialists will steal your 'precious bodiliy fluids'?

It looks to me like you dont.

[Jake Quinn]

"jordan, will you be at Vic tomorrow to watch the PM get destroyed like she did at Canty today?"

touche chris!! it seems your troops didn’t have the numbers ;)

THREE MORE DAYS TILL FREEDOM – lol