ON/CB Poll: September 2005 #1

The latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll was out tonight, showing a large turnaround in National's favour. The results are below, while the numbers in brackets show the results of the last poll, from August.

Lab 38% (43)
Nat 46% (40)
Grn 6% (7)
NZF 5% (5)
ACT 1% (2)
UF 1% (1, 1)
MP 2% (1, 1)

The Preferred PM numbers are as follows:

Clark - 40% (45)
Brash - 31% (27)
Peters - 7% (7)

Nothing good one can say about this. I suspect it may be a little too high for Nat and a little low for us, but on these numbers the party of the past will be taking the Treasury benches in October. It'll be interesting to see how the next two weeks play.

The risk for Labour is that the poll becomes part of a self-fulfilling prophesy. The risk for National is that they look cocky, or that they fade under the tougher scrutiny that'll be applied because they look like they might have a chance of forming a government.

Comments

[david@tokyo]

This is only good news for New Zealand, JC.

The "party of the past" will result in a far far more desirable New Zealand to live in than where the "party of a wasted 6 years" would take us.

There'll be lots of hard-working experienced kiwis flocking home from abroad once National's policies kick in.

The only concern at the moment is the stability of the National led government. Granted, it looks better than a "Labour plus everyone else but National", but if ACT don't get back then fingers crossed that National pull out a mirale and take a majority outright. At any rate, my special is already cast :-)

[Jordan]

Well it'll be a bit of a brain swap. People don't actually like social retrogrades like the Nats are becoming - they're out of tune with the times. But if people want to pocket a tax cut instead of thinking about the country's future, they're free to it. They have to live here, after all :)

[tim barclay]

The only crowd that has been cocky has been Labour. I agree if National look like winning and that is far from cetain then the undecideds will break in favour of National and Labour could suffer from abstentions. I must say her behavior of late does not give me the impression of a glad confident leader. Todays headline about lesbos did not help her at all especially when most of the article was about debunking her recollection. But National has been working to a strategy, Labour has been ad hoc and reactive.

[Paul]

David,

hard-working has become the cliche that common-sense used to be.

meaningless.

[Craig Ranapia]

Jordan:

Well, from what I've been hearing, people don't like the paranoid style in New Zealand politics either. The dumbest thing Labour could do right now is crank up the smear machine and bizarre conspiracy theories - however much I'd like you guys to.

And please continue telling voters they're greedy and stupid if they disagee with Labour. That also goes down like the proverbial flasher at a funeral.

[Graham watson]

Ouch!

I've spent the weekend doing hand to hand campaigning for National, good ol Uni style. Huge response to our team out West Auckland, including a large number of folk who have always voted Labour just sick of being taxed too much, the personal attacks, and the PM who many consider arrogant.

This poll was no surprise to me, in fact only yesterday I was predicting such a result. There is a strong public desire to remove the government. It was only really amongst beneficiaries and wealthy students that I encountered strong Labour support. Many westies said they knew no one this time voting Labour. I could have been in Epsom. I predict Cunliffe and Pillay will suffer serious dents in their majorities, with a major loss of party votes.

Given Cullens recent proposed lolly scrambles after saying at budget time there was no money for tax cuts everyone believes there is money. The Labour line that there is no money is going down like a cup of cold vomit. Most people have heard of the 8 billion dollar surplus Cullen was originally glowing about. Hoist by his own petard?

For National to win an outright majority we need Labour to step up the personal attacks on Brash, tell us how they know whats best for us and continue to tell us how the cupboard is bare. Fair minded new Zealanders will believe this as much as they believe (ie no one) that someone could be doing 170 kph and not notice.

[Aj]

Both side are talking as if the election is over :-)
I'd say there is still two weeks to go and a lot of water to flow under the bridge yet.
I'm almost starting to feel sorry for Winston though....

[Craig Ranapia]

Aj;

I won't presume to speak for Jordan, but the definitive, unspinnable poll that really matters is just under two weeks off. Lots and lots and lots of work to do yet, and I won't be complaining if the Labour Party continues to help.

And don't waste a single grain of your pity on Winston, I'm sure there are five odd billion folks out there who are more deserving. :)

[Ray]

The best news for all New Zealanders would have to be Winston not getting in
Are we not all sick of his never ending "look at me, look at me" behavior
Got to be good for all of us, left and right.

[Craig Ranapia]

Amen to that, Ray! I don't agree with my lefty friends on much politically speaking, but none of us would cross the road to spit on Winston if his head was on fire. :)

My only regret is that there's a couple of decent people - Ron Mark and Brian Connolly come to mind - who would go down with him. But, as the Bible says, you're judged by the company you keep.

[tim barclay]

I do know whether we are at the tipping point yet. But if the negatives are building up for Helen Clark then the whole show collapses for Labour. I also predict that the prosepect of a Red-Green Government will hurt Labour badly in Auckland and that may press Labour's poll ratings down further. Helen Clark needs to recover her support from the public and if she does, that should improve things for Labour. It is all on her now.

[rightkiwi]

Stand by for the big Labour smear campaign to begin. National needs to stand by with this Cullen Issue, whatever it is, just in case a desparate Labour chooses to go through its death throes in the gutter.

[Craig Ranapia]

Rightkiwi:

I have no idea WTF you mean by the "Cullen issue", but I'm not playing that game - and even if I wanted to, I don't think the center-right needs to get down in the angry left's gutter and frolic in the sewerage. Every time the wing-nut left open their mouths and vomit up another bizarre conspiracy theory (without any evidence) or hypocritical personal attack, the right wins.

[Neil]

Anti-govt and especially Anti-Clark feelings in small town New Zealand.
Being told what to think by Auntie Helen is a bit rich.
Labour's candidates down south are just like Helen- bossy,rude and aggressive.Talking over people and they know best.

[Aj]

Craig,
I said I 'almost' felt sorry for WP but I'll probably take your advice.

But for him as well, two weeks is a long time in politics.

[Insolent Prick]

What blatant and utter hypocrisy, Jordan!

National isn't cocky about this. They aren't crowing about the numbers, either. As I said last week when you were trumpeting a false interpretation of the poll results to claim an early victory for Labour, the situation hasn't changed.

As I said before, there is a huge volatility in voter support at the moment. Voter opinion is changing frequently, and this is going to be a very tight race. National knows that it's still got a long way to go before the voters deliver victory to the National Party, and that that victory will be in the final result--not on the basis of one poll. The trend is positive, but National knows that to get voters to turf out this morally and economically bereft government, we need their support.

Yet again, Jordan, your party's smarminess has come back to haunt it.

[tim barclay]

If the voters fall out of love with Helen, who is a most unlikely Prime Minister then it is curtains for Labour. Nothing will save it. Nothing. But Helen is a very skillful political operater but she has feet of clay. Her arrogance is the main negative was so vividly on display over the pilot thing. The fact that he got suspended probably hurt Helen the most. She could have stopped that but didn't.

[Matt]

I really think there is far too much focus on poll's - they are not a good indicator of reality. Ask any social scientist and they'll agree that poll's compared to proper social science surveys are like a paper plane compared to a jumbo, they just aren't the real thing. However, they seem to be considered all the political news that is necessary at the moment. Just look at the Aust republic ref and Neil Kinnock's loss in the early nineties and you will see two good examples of where political media polling was completely inaccurate.

[rightkiwi]

Craig, I'm not sure what the Cullen Issue is either, but it makes me sick hearing Clark, as we did on Moaning Report this morning, say she doesn't do negative campaigning and then she launches right into allegations against national about which she admits she has no proof! I say let's do the bastards.

[Aj]

"Voter opinion is changing frequently"

These people are a worry. Can they make their mind up about what sox to wear ? What lane they should be driving in ? Is it Monday, or Friday ?

[Craig Ranapia]

Rightkiwi:

This may be a shock, old crusty cynic that I am, but I think voters can see through that kind of spin doctored hypocrisy.

As I've said elsewhere, I think Labour (and it's angry left supporters) made a basic strategic error in thinking Brash would collapse before a heavily personalised US-style "presidential" campaign.

I'm getting the sense that moderate/uncommitted voters don't like the tone or the (lack of) substance of such an approach. All it's doing is to set up a vicious circle where the angry left go further over the top, and more and more moderates are turned off. This election will not be won by either side preaching to the perverted fringe. ;)

[rightkiwi]

AJ thinks voters are a worry and shoudn't be able to change their opinions. Pol Pol thought the same way as you AJ.

[Jordan]

I agree that the demise of Winston would be a good thing. Also agree that there's a good two weeks to go. As for the smarmy comments, I'm just going on what I'm seeing from some of the Nats in Wellington Central. It's not a pretty sight!

As for people changing - the research indicates something like 40% decide in the last week, so that is presumably why the polls are so volatile.

[Aj]

rightkiwi:~

"AJ thinks voters are a worry and shoudn't be able to change their opinions."

Hey you. Please read my post again, and if you can find the last seven words of the above sentence, in that order or any other order, I'll vote for any party of your choice.

[dim]

The 'Cullen Issue' has been raised before on DPFs web site. Without getting into any specifics:

It's a personal issue, not political, criminal or financial.

While some of the details are amusing to Parliamentary insiders I doubt the rest of the country would care.

The National Party are in no position to raise 'the Cullen issue' because Labour would then have a free hand to go public on the clutch of infintely juicier National party scandals that are floating around in the political ether.

[Mr K]

I agree with Craig's post above where he says:
"This may be a shock, old crusty cynic that I am, but I think voters can see through that kind of spin doctored hypocrisy." and " I think Labour (and it's angry left supporters) made a basic strategic error in thinking Brash would collapse before a heavily personalised US-style "presidential" campaign."

Labour need to cut the crap and get back to some very clear messages about the positive things it wants to do if re-elected, rather than emphasising the negative.

By all means have a list of things which National says will be 'reviewed' to pay for its promised tax cuts, to show how ill-prepared for government they are, but the emphasis should still be on the positive.

It's not rocket science, just good communication, and it is what people want. Not being talked down to, not spun, just given the information they need to make an informed decision.

Otherwise, why bother with a simple but clear communications tool like the pledge card?

[tim barclay]

If 40% are undecided in the last week and National looks like winning then that could snowball with undecideds breaking decisively in National's favour. Labour strategists understand this of course, but they have placed all their eggs in the Prime Minister's basket. When she stumbles, Labour crashes. She is formidable, but those feet of clay....Women have it difficult to exude authority, she tends to be bossy and petty especially with minions such as police officers and pilots.

[Paul]

"Cullens recent proposed lolly scrambles"

this is old territory, but let's go through it one more time.

Budget is the arm of the government,
electioneering is the arm of political parties.

For labour to have announced any of their fantastic policies during the budget would have left their PARTY little to campaign on.

[Russell Brown]

For goodness sake, Craig, come down off the moral high ground before you run out of oxygen.

National doesn't need to mount a negative campaign because it has so many little helpers doing the job. In today's mail alone I got hysterical flyers attacking the Greens (from Stephen Win) and Labour's "uncaring legacy" in healthcare (from J. Hawkins of Brent Place, Christchurch, recycling Act party talking points). Both inaccurate and screamingly negative, and both, presumably tens of thousnds of dollars worth. Who the hell are these people?

Cheers,
RB

[t selwyn]

I'm still generous enough to be quoting Labour @$1.66/National $2.12 - but Centerbet aren't being so respectful of incumbency. I have two other markets quoted as well at TUMEKE!

[Insolent Prick]

So much for your fucking credibility, Russell.

While you're investigating the political allegiances of a couple of concerned right-wingers, you might as well have a look at the anti-National campaigns funded by the unions.

How about the PSA letters-factory? What did six hundred thousand anti-National letters cost?

[Craig Ranapia]

RB:

I'd like to know too. But unlike Helen and Jeanette I'd like to see some evidence - ANY evidence - that National is involved. I think it does matter when you're accusing people of (on the face of it) illegal campaign activity. Don't you agree, Russell?

And I'm not talking to people on the "moral high ground", but the North Shore. I know hard core partisans and the commentariat don't get it, but people don't seem to have the same fixations as the highly partisan MSM/blogisphere and politicians themselves. And the paranoiac tone of much of the campaign is turning them off.

[Gooner]

'...recycling Act party talking points....'

Yeah like Act would waste campaign funds on that rubbish. Act has a bigger fight on its hands than wondering whether the Greens are right on Kyoto (for example).

And even if National did use Act talk, so what? Act doesn't have a mortgage on ideas. I've heard their candidates blab on endlessly about individual responsibility, freedom and choice for months and months now and I feel like running up to them and pinning an Act rosette on them.

And IP is right. Will Labour be declaring the money the PSA spent as election expenses? The pamphlets may have cost tens of thoudsands but the letters factory would've cost hundreds of thousands. Labour likes inequality only when it suits it.

[Craig Ranapia]

FWIW, Russell, in 2002 Wayne Mapp may have won North Shore with a majority of 5,098 but Labour won almost 1,400 more party votes than National (31.27% vs. 27.43% of the total party votes cast). So we're not exactly talking Tory Central here.

It's actually been quite instructive to get my head out of the partisan/media bubble for a bit, because the landscape is very different.

[stef]

No nor good, but not the end. It's 14 days and very close. The tories have more than demonstrated themselves just as capable of shooting themselves in the foot as well. Don't get your moving boxes out yet boys.

[SPC]

On these polls, it's a 61 seat National United government (they effectively gain 2.5%/3 seats if ACT and NZF leave).

So expect to see ACT and NZ First remain on the outside looking in. National won't help them, if they can get a safer partner for 2005 and an easier environment to campaign in for 2008.

Any signal to ACT only cannnibalise the National vote (and there would only be a 1 seat loss on a !% polling ACT). Any signal on Tauranga, simply pushes pro Labour voters from NZF to Labour.

I think ACT and NZF are gone - and National either wins with United, or is very well placed with a large caucus to win it all in 2008.

[Paul]

hell I hope you're right Steph.

because if these buggers are at all representative of the right in this country, we are screwed.

But you know what, none of us here are representative of any of the major parties (with the exception of ACT - but I did say major parties).

As they say, blooging is the middle class talkback radio, and talkback has never been representative of the populus, or we';d be having lynch mobs running up and down the country chasing paedophiles with nooses, locking criminals away forever etc etc...

I'm depressed as buggery about the whole bloody thing, more so for the fact that national has shown some of it's true colours, and it really despises anyone not mainstream. let alone indifference to them (which I could almost handle).

[Psycho Milt]

Never in the field of human endeavour have so many chickens been counted before they hatched! You're getting way too excited there kiddies - Mr Barclay's even started spouting about women being unable to exude authority, a claim which you can only hope would cause him some embarassment if he wasn't gripped by poll fever...

[tim barclay]

It is difficult for wommin exude authority without sounding bossy and shrill, especially if you are not confident. the only people counting chickens is Labour as they did all last week. They have gone quiet now. The Labour Party's economic policy is never in the field of government has so much been borrowed by so many students from so few taxpayers.

[Craig Ranapia]

Tim:

Balls. There are plenty of women - and men - who exude authority without being shrill bullies.

[Psycho Milt]

Re bossy and shrill women in authority, it is of course inconceivable that this is a reflection of your prejudice rather than an accurate portrayal of objective reality...

And I must have missed the over-optimistic victory clebrations by Labour supporters all last week - bugger!

[tim barclay]

Craig I said it was difficult. I remeber reading how Margaret Thatcher found it difficult, said said "there goes old bossy boots again". Short people have trouble as well. Basically a tall man has it easy to put on an aura of authority. She compensates by wearing mannish clothes and speaking in a very deep voice. But she has this tendancy to get very petty with little people, people she can easily bully. I may be prejudiced, I don't know, but I think I am respectful of a competant wommin in charge.

[Genius]

labour needs to pull out a late election bribe one big enough to win - forget about any accusation of it being a result of panic everyone knows it is and they also know nationals tax cut was the same.

As upset as it might make labour to be irresponsible they can chalk it up to "lesser of two evils".

[tim barclay]

Well I guess the Labour Party are working on something. Maybe they will even at this late stage make a gesture towards tax cuts for the singles. Difficult now I know. If they do they have left it to the last possible moment and have done it only when desperate. But we get this dreary drizzle of unsolicitored emails being released. There seems to be a major breach of security in Brash's office. But National is right not to worry about that now, that can wait.

[Aaron]

Has anyone done any polling into what the hundreds of thousands of kiwis abroard are thinking? That's a huge number of special votes up for grabs.

[rightkiwi]

Aaron - past experience is that offshore votes overwhelmingly favour National. Offshore NZers tend to be higher income earners and independent and successful people. Think South Auckland and think the opposite.

[Aaron]

Best the blue brigade sends over some help to pick up all those special votes in Sydney, Brisbane and London. The more the merrier.

The move by the Don to shack up with UF is great as well. Gives people who have a family focused bent a greater sense of security that a National led government won't be as evil and heartless as the left would have you believe.

I'm sure Mark Alexander would love to stick it up Jeanette and Rod as well.

[Mr K]

Someone really should do a study one day of the use of violent imagery by right-wing bloggers and blog-commentators.

[Phillps]

Absolutely. You'd think this was "good ol' lynchin'" and not a left-wing blogsite with the amount of right-wing torch-and-stick waving! Whoa, now I'm pumping a pitch fork! Thanks, Dr. Brash.

[Craig Ranapia]

Mr. K. & Philips:

Pot. Kettle. Black. Most interesting that folks feel most comfortable throwing out the vitriol using false names and munged e-mail addresses, isn't it?