TV3/TNS Poll: Sept 2005 #2

TV3's latest political poll came out tonight, contradicting the One News poll also of tonight. The results are as follows, with the results of the last poll (published 7 September) as follows:

Lab - 40.5 (45)
Nat - 38.7 (36)
Grn - 6.9 (7)
NZF - 6.8 (5)
ACT - 0.9 (2.4)
UF - 3.0 (1.5)
MP - 1.4 (1.7)
Prog - 0.4 (0.3)
Dest - 0.8 (1.0)

On the Preferred PM stakes:

Clark - 38 (39)
Brash - 23 (21)
Peters - 10 (9)

The other number that caught my eye was that Don Brash's "performed poorly" numbers are up from 33% to 41% in a week. Not a helpful shift for him. Also there has been a good improvement in people's perceptions of the economy's likely performance over the next three months; in how they see unemployment moving; and in NZ becoming a better place to live.

None of these numbers look like a losing combination for Labour. Yet I will maintain my "too close to call" comment. Things have clearly got worse for us since last week. Tomorrow's Herald poll will be interesting.

More detail at www.tns-global.co.nz.

Comments

[Graham watson]

I've been campaigning in traditional Labour areas over the last couple of days and detect a strong move to National.

While I would like to think this would mean a National landslide most of the folk I have spoken with are taxpayers, so I try not to read too much in to it. I concur, with the polls fluctuating this is too close to call.

[Chris]

Jordan the Herald poll tomorrow shows you in the lead by quite a big margin (as I understand it). So something nice for you to wake up to.

[Craig Ranapia]

Chris:

I'd be very cheered by the headline ("Labour could govern alone", and I wouldn't be too upset if it panned out and both Greens and NZFirst are history.

What a shame the story underneath reveals that headline is based on that very big assumption.

FWIW, I think the Herald Digipoll & Three TNS polls have consistently (slightly) overestimated Labour's support, and the One/Colmar Brunton & Fairfax polls have done the same for National.

Don't know if that's a side effect of methodological differences or how the questions are framed, but I just don't have the gut feeling that either main party will have that big a lead on Sunday morning.

[Tiberias]

A big who knows at this point, the Herald poll had a lot of caveats attached. But I'd say Helen at 2.10 is a pretty good bet over at Centrebet for you early riser types. I imagine it might not be that good by this afternoon.

[tim barclay]

Public opinion is quite volatile, and National would not even be in the ring but for the huge surplus which has National to promiose swingeing tax cuts. Those that support Labour are sceptical whether they can or will be delivered. I do believe Labour will have difficulty mustering their vote tomorrow whereas National will not.