The Challenge for National and Labour in 2006

National's strategy for the three-year Parliament is emerging from the summer silly season fog. It will be a conventional looking Opposition strategy:

• Very negative on the government in 2006
• A managed leadership transition in 2006/2007
• Develop skills base of new MPs in 2006
• Reshuffle shadow cabinet in 2006/2007
• Develop policy themes and roll out in 2006/07
• Look like an alternative government in 2007/08
• Roll out centrist manifesto in 2008
• Run a "One Nation" or inclusive, centrist campaign in 2008, capturing a "Time for a Change" theme.

Most of these things are internal to National and so are not subject to external constraint or deflection by the government. Labour can help destabilise National's leadership and maintain pressure on their shadow Cabinet but that is about all.

The risk for National is a bungled or too-late leadership change. Don Brash cannot beat Helen Clark in 2008 and most Nats know it. He will not be the leader; John Key will be (or Bill English if I got my way). If he is given his run too late life will be very difficult for National. If he is given his run too early, he risks being torn apart by Labour before the 2008 election.

Labour's most predictable response through 2006 will be to simply get on with governing, making sure there are no policy failures that leave us exposed to opposition attacks. 2005 saw far too many gaps in this regard. Some portfolios, particularly education and health, are going to need serious work if they are not to sink the government in 2008.

The major reshuffle post-election should help, by forcing Ministers with fresh eyes to look at existing problems and come up with new solutions. The party will also need to kick off a renewal process to deliver some excellent candidates in 2008, and ensure the manifesto for 08 is as forward looking and credible as our 1999 programme (which was really setting out a three-term agenda).

There'll also need to be a step-change in the government's ability to communicate with the public. Far too evident last term was a simple inability - or unwillingness - to actually have a debate and a discussion with the public on policy issues. Most evident in Treaty and taxation issues, it is a culture that was across most of the government in most policy areas. It must change if Labour is to make a serious pitch at a fourth term in office.

So it is going to be an important year. Both parties have the chance to make serious improvements in their ability to make a pitch to the electorate in 2008. The choices they make will be interesting indeed.

Comments

[M'lud]

I completely agree with your entire post. The renewal will be Labour's biggest challenge, as it's always difficult to get the old tuskers out to pasture. And responding to "events dear boy, events" is the next biggest challenge. After so long in govt, Labour won't be able to credibly blame National for bureaucratic screw-ups.

[Craig Ranapia]

Jordan:

OK, I probably shouldn't give Labour free advice - only mitigated by the fact nobody who matters would pay the slightest attention - but the problem isn't only a "a simple inability - or unwillingness - to actually have a debate and a discussion with the public on policy issues."

There are some senior members of the Cabinet who really have to stop reacting to disagreement like a medieval Bishop confronted with a peasant espousing the Manichean Heresy. People who disagree with you aren't stupid, liars or some kind of phobic "-ist".

[tim barclay]

I think the National Party will be looking very closely at what David Cameron is seeking to do with the UK conservatives. And yes there is a sameness between the Uk conservatives and the National Party. I think the National Party will give Don Brash this year to lift his game as a politician and if he does not, then reluctantly they will make the change about this time next year. BUT things can change very quickly in politics. As for Bill English I hope he does not become leaqder of the National Party for the very reasons you want him as leader. He just lacks the man management skills to be leader and that is that in my view.

[Rich]

Wayne Mapp would make a great leader for the Nats.

[Jordan]

Craig, that is just an undiplomatic way of saying what I said. :-)

[Craig Ranapia]

Jordan:

Ah, now who do you think is the most likely to end up on the business end of a restraining order out of the two of us. :)

[Millsy]

National put English in too early in my opinion, they should have given him an apprenticeship as senior spokesperson or deputy leader before giving him the top job. He is very effective as education spokesman, even though he has a complete disregard for Article 26(i) of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. I think with English as leader, Gerry as his "enforcer" at number 2, and Key as Finance spokesman, National would be a force to be reckoned with in 2008.

As for labour, almost all of its front bench are rather long in the tooth...I mean, a lot of the top 10, such as Goff, King, et al, were in the 1984-90 labour cabinet, and I think a few changes are overdue...in both policy and personeell, its whole agenda is not to upset the apple cart, and steady as she goes..

Labour looks to be shifting rightward day by day now, Jordan - for a person who claims to be a democratic socialist, I am suprised that you havent cashed in your membership.

[tim barclay]

Do not think so Millsy. The problems with English are deeper than a bit green for the job. But he has played himself back very well in the education portfolio by sheer dint of hard work and exposed a Government that has no control over how public money is being spent.

[Michael]

Not a bad review of Labour's threats - Tertiary Education looks to be in a huge mess and NCEA is still not bedded in.

I think most people regard Health as something politicians are never able to fix, so while major failures will cause problems if the waiting lists can be managed and scandals kept to a minimum then

Regarding the Nats, I don't think Brash is a problem for us. Remember Orewa I? Brash (despite his knockers) is capable of doing it again in 2008. People forget that the only opposition leaders to win their first elections are Lange and Muldoon. And that one very unpopular opposition leader (An approval of 2% at it's worst) is now PM of NZ.

[M'lud]

Michael's right. Opposition leaders almost never rate well in the "preferred" polls, but if they do win an election they magically leap up the scale. It's really one of the most pointless polls ever devised, no matter which party you support.

[TomS]

National will be irrelevant if the economy picks up again, IMHO.

Interest rates will be cut by September. The inflation threat is easing. A falling exchange rate through 2007 will see the economy bounce back from its dip in 06 to be growing strongly again in election year 08. Labour will campaign with a refreshed line up (I see in my crystal ball a lot of retirements in 2008) and a we were right to keep the spending up to smooth out the downturn, and "NOW its time for some tax relief."

With some fresh faces and the ability to crow about economic management, Labour will be will placed in 08 no matter WHAT National does.

[Craig Ranapia]

TomS:

Well with all due respect, Labour had their chance to get some fresh blood in the caucus - it was September 17th 2005. Instead you had a pretty risk-averse, faction-placating party list that turned out to be the most efficient recycling scheme in the country.

I'd also suggest that Clark's heavy-handed hint that it was time for some 'death with dignity' on the backbenches seems to have gone down like the proverbial bucket of sick. :)

And while I've retired my economic crystal ball, if Labour is going to bet the farm on a platform of 'competent economic management' I'd hope rumours that Cullen is going to resign in '08 are true. IMO, he had a lousy campaign because what plays as 'acerbic wit' insides Thorndon Triangle just came across as spitting, snarling intellectual arrogance under pressure. If he is going to resign, someone needs to convince him to step down from Finance and the Deputy slot mid-term and appoint a 'happy warrior' who can face off against Key without looking like he's got dog shit on his shoe.

[Millsy]

Have you ever considered breaking into journalism, Mr Ranapia??? You have an excellent way with words that would sell newspapers like hot cakes.

[Craig Ranapia]

Millsy:

Thanks for the compliment, but I've been there, done that and just don't have the ink-stained DNA of the true newsman. The world doesn't need another time-serving mediocre hack.