TV3 Poll: July 2006

TV3 released their latest TNS political poll on Saturday night, the 8th of July. Following on from the poor polling post-budget, I was expecting a lift back towards parity. I was not expecting an 8 point lead for Labour. I suspect things are probably actually evenly balanced in the party vote, but I was cheered by the plunging personal ratings of Don Brash.

Anyhow, the results, with the May and March 06 results in the brackets to follow:

Lab - 46% (42, 43)
Nat - 39% (41, 40)
Grn - 6% (6, 6)
NZF - 3.8 (3.8, 4.3)
Act - 0.8% (1.8, 1.1)
UF - 1.1% (1.9, 1.9)
MP - 1.3% (2.2, 3)

In terms of the Preferred Prime Minister ratings,

Clark - 38% (34, 38)
Brash - 13% (18, 15)
Peters - 6 (6, 6)
Key - no numbers reported

Don Brash's rating is the lowest he has secured in the TNS poll since June 2004, the earliest date reported on the data I have to hand.

A nice poll to get, even if it is a bit over optimistic, in the context of Labour's 90th birthday.

Comments

[peter mck]

Jordan - have you forgotten to mention the other polls that Show National have a 8 point lead over Labour - ie the roy morgan poll and the TV1 poll. both showed labour in free fall. i think for balance the best approach is to average the polls out. Then it would be demonstrated that National are still maintaining a comfortable lead over the ever increasingly corrupt labour governemnt and people are waking up to this.

here is a useful link http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2006/4047/

[Aj]

Interesting Maori Party trend.

[Jordan]

The Roy Morgan poll hasn't appeared on my blog, and I don't intend to cover it as one of my regular series. Only polls commissioned in NZ for NZ consumption are relevant, as far as I am concerned. You make your accusations of corruption so casually. I would be interested in any evidence you have - otherwise you simply paint yourself as, at best, a very sloppy thinker.

But thanks for the thought, Peter. :)

[tim barclay]

I guess you cannot be bothered looking up the morgan poll website. But it is pretty good and was bang on in the last election if you look back.

[peter mck]

the fact labour on purpose spent $400k of taxpayer money on the pledgecards when they knew it was against the rulles makes them corrupt, to say nothing of the Philip Taito-Field corruption, the lies of Benson-pope in the house, Cullen pretending Taxcuts are not affordable, David Parker and filing false returns, and and ofcouse helen clark - Painter gate, Doongate, speedgate.

do you want more?

[PabloR]

With the exception of Field, on whom the report has not yet been released and there is as yet no evidence, none of these are examples of using a position of trust for dishonest gain.

Painter gate - a charitable donation by the PM, she benefited in no way financially did she?
Doonegate - How is that corruption again?
Speedgate - how is the PM culpable for the decision of the security squad?
Parkergate - he has been exonerated by Companies Office, any other allegations are unproved and were not committed under his guise as a minister or MP
BensonPopegate - his word against another's

You are really stretching the definition of corruption to make your point with all these examples. You're not Wayne mapp are you?

[Aj]

Don used the right word last year - recession - trouble is it was his poll ratings not growth.

[span]

How about, when people talk about corruption, they turn their minds to the situation within the police which is not about petty political point-scoring but suggests a culture of sexism and violence towards women? (Not blaming Labour for this one though, please note)

Sorry this is totally off topic, but I am so sick of seeing Tory commenters claiming corruption in the Govt over ridiculous things, when there is a great big elephant in the police force that these same people totally ignore, e.g. Murray McCully's latest newsletter:
http://spanblather.blogspot.com/2006/07/mccully-misses-obvious-problem-with.html

Grrrrrr.

And Jordan can post about whichever polls he wants to, he doesn't need your permission (or mine) - isn't this his blog? And if you want to wank on and on about this stuff set up your own blog and go for it!

[Craig Ranapia]

Oh, youngling, some of us remember when someone called Marge O'Error was regularly outpolling Helen Clark as preferred PM and the CW had it that she wouldn't lead Labout into the '96 campaign. Always strikes me as a nonsensical question, considering that we don't elect the executive separately from the legislature.

I was hoping that after the farcical polling mess around the election campaign, some of our media organisations would have re-focused on hiring, properly resourcing and (most importantly) retaining experienced, well-informed journalists. Silly, silly me...

[Craig Ranapia]

Oh, youngling, some of us remember when someone called Marge O'Error was regularly outpolling Helen Clark as preferred PM and the CW had it that she wouldn't lead Labout into the '96 campaign. Always strikes me as a nonsensical question, considering that we don't elect the executive separately from the legislature.

I was hoping that after the farcical polling mess around the election campaign, some of our media organisations would have re-focused on hiring, properly resourcing and (most importantly) retaining experienced, well-informed journalists. Silly, silly me...

[Jordan]

Properly resourced journalists?

There's an idea :)

The rest of the bleating is, as Russell Brown points out, so typical it's barely worth mentioning.

[Craig Ranapia]

Do I bleat? I always thought my usual voice was a cultural drawl, but I could be wrong. :)

[Mark]

Note to self: must NEVER criticise left bloggers. This is "screaming and writhing". Thank God that Jordan has that paragon of objectivity Russell Brown sticking up for him.
I always enjoy his faux attempts to be just so gosh darn reasonable whilst at the same time being blatantly biased and hypocritical. This takes skill.

[Jordan]

No you don't bleat Craig. Tim bleats. Peter McK bleats. Lots of people bleat but never you.

[PabloR]

I have always found Tim's comments to be more a forced evacuation of evil thoughts from the bowell of reason.

[span]

Yes Craig, I've always thought of you more as mooing, rather than bleating ;-)
hugs & kisses
span

[Michael]

I'm willing to put a bet that if an election was held when the poll was taken it would have been a few thousand votes between Labour and National - but, I'm not prepared to bet which would be first.

As for Labour being corrupt, I think naive might be the correct term - signing a painting that isn't yours and then not expecting it to be an beaten up into big issue (to sell lots of copies of a Sunday paper) is pretty naive. And using public money for Parliamentary Publicity is permitted and legal (The Greens, United and ACT also did it) although I support a prohibition in the 90 days before an election.

On the face of it, if that's the level of corruption in New Zealand we are doing quite well.

On Brash, he should be a competent and respected Prime Minister as we don't have expectations of our PMs being dynamic - Clark, Shipley, and Bolger are likeable but hardly the life of the party type. Lange was the only exception in my lifetime. But we have trouble with our Opposition Leaders being dry and (dare I say it) boring. English, Clark, McClay and Rowling all struggled to set the public imagination on fire while on the opposition benches.

During the election campaign, we saw Brash's approval ratings peak as he began to look more likely to PM - which his style suits.