ON/CB Poll: Sept 2007

The latest One News / Colmar Brunton poll was published by TVNZ on Sunday night. The results are as follows, with the brackets showing the results from the August, July and May results:

Lab - 39% (36, 36, 31)
Nat - 49% (53, 52, 56)
Grn - 5% (5, 5, 6)
NZF - 3% (2.6, 2.3, 2.1)
MP - 3% (1.0, 2.6, 2.9)
UF - 1% (0.5, 0.6, 1)
ACT - 1% (1.2, 0.3, 0.4)

The Preferred Prime Minister numbers are as follows:

Helen Clark - 33% (29, 29, 27)
John Key - 31% (35, 35, 38)
Winston Peters - 4% (4, 2, 2)

One News explains this change, which is an improvement for Labour, in the context of high visibility for Helen Clark on international issues, and the impact of the scrutiny which Labour applied to John Key.

I think they are probably right. When you look at this lineup, you do see a shift that will be welcomed by the government. It has the left Lab-Grn bloc on 44% support, and the right bloc on 51% (Nat, UF, Act). I have left NZF and the Maori Party out of that left-right bloc measure for two reasons. First it is not clear that NZF will return to parliament post election, though on past form they may well scrape back in. Second, while in the past I have categorised the Maori Party as a right conservative party, I do think these days that that has more to do with Tariana Turia's poisoned relationship with Labour than anything else. The party has developed an impressive depth quickly, and I think eventually it will end up in the centre left family.

If that was the case - if NZF didn't return and if the Maori Party ends up supporting Labour-led administrations - then the left-right split is 47/51.

In other words, very close indeed. The last few election campaigns have shown how volatile campaigns can be, and how parties with large and sustained poll leads through popular leaders can make mistakes such that they lose a good 15 points during a campaign.

History never repeats, so to speak, but consider the government's agenda. Major meat on the bones of climate change policy is coming up this week, according to media. There will be a reshuffle, which I hope will be extensive enough to show some fresh faces on the front bench. There will be a Labour Party conference in the weeks after that.  The PM will be visible on a few international trips.

Perhaps, just perhaps, there is a bigger glimmer of light for Labour than for some months. I would not want to overstate the case, but from where I am sitting now, this poll is OK news.

Comments

[Monty]

One of the other issues Labour is going to have, is addressed in the poll in the Fairfax newspapers on Saturday morning - a whopping 62% believe there will be a change of government including 46% of Labour supporters. (putting aside the preferred PM strongly in Key’s favour and National at 50% for a moment).

As the Fairfax poll put it - Labour's problem is that voters turn off the Labour message - much as voters turned off National's message in the later 1990's. Hell I knew staunch National voters who voted for Labour only of the basis of time for a change. Now I meet Labour voters who are so turned off by this government that any option but a labour government is good. That is great news for the national Party.

The other problem that Labour are having is that they seem unable to move National off that 50% ish support that is now bedding in as people have made their decision to Vote for National. Only a meltdown on the National benches will bleed support - and like the Labour party of the early 2000s their is a spring in the National Party Step, and they present a united and cohesive Party - unlike the Labour party now which is internally bitching and crumbling.

Come the election national will take home about 50% of the vote, Labour will get about 35% and the scraps to the others. Clark’s attempt to re-arrange the deckchairs on the Titanic will only expose the rot below the waterline and make the HMS Labour sink even faster leaving few survivors.

[Karl Marx]

I would have agreed with Monty's first point a month ago. This poll, however, indicates Labour's support is back to where it was before the 05 election. Over three election cycles the Labour party seems to have a core of 38-40 % of the party vote.

On your second point, Monty, I do agree, there's a chance National's near majority support could become embedded. "Possibly". National faces two problems in this regard. First, these are mid term polls. For the most part, the soft vote (10%) isn't embedded in the policy debate, and it certainly isn't embedded in the party differentiation that errupt as parties seek to shape voter perceptions during eletion campaigns. Second, National is yet to come clean on policy. And on that front, they are going to have to wrap their neo-liberal beliefs in third way clothes if they want to hold this support. To make matters more difficult, it seems they're planning to do the latter during a time when voter scrutiny is most intense--election time. I'm not convinced Key can pull that off, yet.

My money is still on a Labour/progressives/Greens coalition post 08.

[David Baigent]

I will readily grant that the polls will vary from time to time as the day to day issues are dealt with.

Also there is time yet for a new trend to be set before the Election.

So why the apparent urgency in returning the Electrol Finance Bill before the Xmas recess.

That Select Committee is working extra shifts to get the Bill back and through the House, with I understand a determination to hold to a minimum of changes.

This is a time bomb in waiting.
When the NZ voter becomes aware of the undeclared intent of this Bill you would be advised to take cover.

Be sure that the reign in opposition following the explosion will be longer than the three terms enjoyed in the treasury benches.

[Robert Owen]

"My money is still on a Labour/Progressives/Greens coalition post 08."
Yes I 've thought that for a while now particularly with the demise of NZF I'd be a liitle worried about Dunne having three or 4 mps It would be worth LAb and Green voters voting NATIONAL in his electorate as a safeguard.
And if you think that in the blogosphere, the Right are vitriolic now.
if they get the majority vote and still don't gain power, Well Fuck I just can't wait.

[abc]

David Baigent - the bill has to be passed by Christmas, because it is meant to come into force on 1 January. After that date, Labour plans that no one can communicate with the public without first registering with the state.

[sophisticated]

Any glimmer of hope and the Left erupts... Don't count on much cos your out of luck

[Craig Ranapia]

Robert Owen wrote:
And if you think that in the blogosphere, the Right are vitriolic now.
if they get the majority vote and still don't gain power, Well Fuck I just can't wait.

I reply:
Well, Owen, I think it's going to be very interesting to see the heat go on the minor parties exactly who they're going to 'get into bed with' (vile phrase) - and on what terms - well before the election - and on what terms.

Don't think that's ground that's going to terribly comfortable for anyone. I certainly think some sections of the Labour Party are going to have to be put on a very tight leish indeed - no more ranting about 'haters and wreckers' and 'Green fanatics', ay. And certainly no dangling baubles behind closed doors.

[Robert Owen]

The Moari party it would seem are going to be in an extremely strong position.
If there is A Gov formed with NAT/MOR and possible Act I can see the Nats being more constrained [in what they are able to do] then Labour is now.
So its L/G/M/P
or N/A/M/ with Dunne doing the best for Dunne
It going to take some deft politics to get either of those babies flying
When the heat goes on in Election year you would have to put money on Helen I think
Either way Farrar's nutters will be pissed!
cia

[Oliver]

I think that the most significant figure in the poll is the 46% of Labour supporters thinking that the govt will change. This will have a serious impact when Labour goes looking for people to put up billboards, drop leaflets and raise money. Many people who would have done these tasks in '05 simply won't bother if they think that Labour's going to lose anyway.

[Robert Owen]

Oliver.Sorry to disagree , I feel It won't have any impact whatsoever. The people who undertake those tasks are commited Labour supporters and generally members of the party.

[Felix]

Another factor will be whether Key can avoid looking like a fuckwit until the election.
It's a long row to hoe for someone with very little grasp of his parties policies, very little business experience, and a major credibility problem with even his biggest fans.
The best he can do is keep his mouth shut as long as he can and he'll have a shot.

[gimp]

"Sorry to disagree , I feel It won't have any impact whatsoever. "

Actually Rob it may just have an effect because most people don't tend to expend extra effort on what they see as a futile cause. In this context some "Labour" voters may not even bother going to the polling booth - I mean whats the point if you believe Labour don't have a chance of winning? Of course the flip side of this argument is that National voters who believe National are a shoe in won't bother going to the polling booth either. It will be interesting.

As for Karl Marx's crap about wrapping neo-liberal policies in third way clothes - National didn't bother to do this at the last election and if it hadn't been for the Exclusive Brethren fiasco (and please don't try and suggest the EB in anyway helped National or the right gain votes cos they didn't) they would have won EXPLICITLY advocating neoliberal policies.

[Aj]

What % of undecided?

[GeniusNZ]

good work on the Xue case - the government dodged a bullet by being seen to be ready to take action as fast as possible to help the grandmother get here.
thats the sort of thing you need to get right.