TV3-TNS Poll: September 2007

The latest TV3-TNS was released recently.  The results are below, with the July, May, April and February results in the brackets following.

Lab - 37% (36, 36, 36, 44)
Nat - 47% (48, 48, 42, 41)
Grn - 7% (6, 8, 6, 8)
NZF - 3.2% (2.6, 2.4, 1.2, 2.8)
Act - 1.5% (1.2, 0.5, 1.3, 0.8)
UF - 0.1% (1.1, 0.6, 0.9, 0.8)
MP - 1.8% (2.7, 3.7, 2.7, 2.0)

In terms of the Preferred Prime Minister ratings,

Clark - 28% (31, 30, 37, 35)
Key - 32% (31, 32, 28, 24)
Peters - 4% (4, 5, 4, 5)

This is a result I would describe as "OK". The long stable patch in Labour's poll rating in this poll, and National's improvement, have both narrowed. The gap between the two major parties is 10 points, as opposed to 13.5 points in the Digipoll ten days ago. The continued resilience of the Greens is also something Labour can be pleased about.

I'll be interested to see the detailed numbers that are usually released by TNS on this poll. The leadership characteristics numbers could be quite interesting; they might show if Labour's critique of Key last month has had an impact.

The next bit of good news is the PM's comments in the media that a reshuffle is on the way. Good! The bigger the better. It is time for Labour to show a fresh set of faces around Helen Clark in the run up to the next general election.

Comments

[rjs131]

Are Labour looking at going with the greens? Were nt they going to do that last election before shafting them? Whose say they wont shaft them again or that the greens would want to go with them?

Who do you think shoudl be dropped in the re-shuffle?

[Monty]

The reshuffle is akin to rearranging the deck chairs on the ill-fated titanic - but in this instance the lifeboats have all gone and we the captain still in denial the ship is sinking, but chaos through the officers.

The polls are now bedding John Key as the preferred PM and National as the preferred party.

You cannot seriously compare this poll to the three week old Digi poll and say things are improving - that is laughable as it is desperate to see something positive in this TV3 / TNS poll that Helen Clark publicly has always put her faith in. Now she is saying it is margin of error stuff. But she fails to hold back her fury at being less popular that John Key.

As I have said before – the Champagne is ready for the Landslide National victory in the 2008 election.

[tim barclay]

It will be in the nature of a shuffle-bottom. I have yet to see a reshuffle that has done a dying Government any good let alone changing the Leader. Though Gordon Brown seems to have revived the fortunes of the British Labour Party - for now. It may lift the morale of the Labour Party but it will also destabilise that fractious party. To me the Labour Party is a miscellaneous collection of busy bodies who want something out of the Government but have little else in common.

[rod]

The latest Preferred Prime Minister ratings.

Clark-28%

Key- 32%

Peters-4%

So who has got the other 36% ? John Campbell or Duncan Garner?

Give us a break TV3. It,s all a load of bullshit!

[burt]

Way to go Rod - shoot the messenger !

[burt]

Jordan

In your post on the April ON/CB poll you said....

"I do not believe that National's support is solid at 49%, given the results of the last election, and Helen Clark's continued strong showings in the preferred PM numbers show that Labour remains fully competitive."

National's support is starting to look pretty solid in the high 40's now and the preferred PM poll has shifted somewhat. Would you agree that according to 'Jordan speak' Labour are no longer competitive ?

[GNZ]

"OK".. geezz

what on earth are you guys up to where you can be behind with so much in your favour. As I said a long time ago labour would have to just about kill babies on TV to loose the next election, well stop killing babies!

Fortunately there is still time to fire everyone and hire me as your leader, heh. First thing to do would be to do some focus groups and stuff to get back in touch with the general population.

The reshuffle should help although helen might have other things in mind when she reshuffles than what is best for the party.

[dad4justice]

Even for a bent dealer like Helengrad its so hard to reshuffle a clapped out pack of floppy cards - let alone deal to the extremely pissed off voter . It will take years and years to fix the social chaos Labour has inflicted on our communities with loony social policy that was written by radical feminists . I had it with all these lies and corruption , step down Clark and the country should go to the polls before Christmas, as the country is in a mess !

[David Baigent]

The next roymorgan poll is due out this week.

May be difficult to accept what is becoming more apparent to the NZ voter.

The biggest threat of the lot coming up just before Xmas is the Electoral Finance Bill.

The submissions to the Justice and Electoral Select Committee have been pouring in and the impression is that self interest has become "help yourself, every one else is".

As NZers become aware of this travesty the surprise and dismay is almost humerus to witness.

[NX]

I wonder what promises Clark has made to her Labour colleagues about pulling back the polls? I wonder what deadlines she's given?

I suspect that if Labour is still this far behind in election year (3 months away), something going to give. The minor parties will want to separate themselves from the government (expect the Greens).

Political commentators have never had it so good.

[tim barclay]

Labour think they can pull back the polls because they have done it before. National's large lead has been in place for some time now. But under MMP it is not that simple. There may be some leakage of National's support to the Greens and there lies Labour's best hope for a 4th term.

[Monty]

Tim - I disagree with you - I think that people are so sick of this government that Labour are history. Nothing will save them and National voters will not support the Greens because it would risk giving Labour a lifeline. The EFB corruption of our democracy is the ultimate in arrogance.

I am now regularly meeting people who have a strong union background (like a fireman mate) who can no longer stomach Labour then you know they are in trouble. I think it is Labour who will continue to lose support, and I think the winners may be the Maori Party and unfortunately Winston. - But nothing will be enough to save Labour from their lowest polling since time began. Their MPs know it and the internal fights are evident.

This is proven by the lack of support for Burton, O'Connor being resigned, Rick Barker looking to be tossed. They are a sad and unhappy bunch.

The HMS Helengrad is rotten below the waterline and it is about to sink. Helen is trying feebly to re-arrange the deckchairs.

It was interesting to watch the faces of the Labour MPs in parliament yesterday - they do not seem a happy bunch at all do they?

How many Ministers including O’Conner has Helen gone through now?

[burt]

So Helen calls Key's lead in the PPM show down 'margin of error stuff' yet today the Morgan poll shows a the margin between National & Labour has narrowed by a few percent and it's claimed 'Labour rallies in latest poll'. Shame on the Dom post - do they think we are all so stupid that we can't see their party colours hung out for all to see.

[David Baigent]

Oops, Jordan.
Just when we were just about "all polled out", they draw out another one.
This new FairFax poll is getting pretty close to being unnecessary don't you think.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4202548a10.html

Have you been following the submissions to the Justice and Electrol Select Committee.
The aware NZer, is a interesting and diverse group.

I am sure that they will in the main come to the best decisions, don't you think.