NZ Herald Digipoll: Sept 07

On Saturday, the Herald carried the results of their latest Digipoll. The results are below with those of the previous four polls (August, July, June and May 07) in brackets in that order:

Lab - 39.6% (36.8, 42.0, 40.1, 33.6)
Nat - 44.8% (50.3, 48.5, 48.2, 50.9)
Grn - 7.2% (6, 4, 4, 6.1)
NZF - ?% (2.8, 2, 3, 3.2)
UF - ?% (0.0, 0.3, 0.3, 0.8)
ACT - ?% (0.9, 0.4, 0.6, 0.7)
MP - ?% (2.3, 1.8, 2.4, 1.7)

The preferred PM ratings show:

Clark at 46.8% (47.3, 48.7, 45.8, 42.1)
Key at 42.2% (39, 37.9, 42.2, 45.5)
Peters at ??% (6.9, 7.0, 5.2, 5.4)

This poll shows a big turnaround against National, just as the last one showed one against Labour. This is less expected than the previous month's turnaround, as far as I'm concerned.

The Nats will be very worried with this, because what it seems to show is that Labour's reframing of John Key last month has had some effect. The satire shows are now a good deal less friendly to the Opposition leader, and the government seems to have dramatically improved its political management.

In this poll, if it were borne out on election day, one would expect to see a Labour/Greens government supported by Maori Party MPs. Last month, the only possibility was a National government.

Next month's suite of polls will be interesting. Will the tide continue to go Labour's way or will this be a false dawn? The last week's events will do the Nats more damage, because they reveal aspects of political deception and because they remind voters of what they like least about the Nats: their ideological extremism. So I would hope for further progress based on National's SNAFUs, the popular welcoming of Labour's climate change announcements, and good press for Helen in Europe this week.

Comments

[Paul]

And with the idea of PPP, National has rid itself of it's potential suitor Winnie Peters by suggestions that Macquarie Bank could build schools. We all know how he feels about foreign ownership of essential kiwi infrastructure.

Lab/Green in 08. Very Very possibly with this return to Ruthenasia politics of National.

[George Darroch]

Lab-Green-Maori? Given the way Labour has treated those two parties in the last few years, I wouldn't assume anything.

[Thomas]

"Lab-Green-Maori? Given the way Labour has treated those two parties in the last few years, I wouldn't assume anything."
Far comment but Nat-Green- Maori ? I don't think so

[Thomas]

What is interesting is generally when Lab poll % goes down Greens % goes up and visa versa. This time they have both gone up. That for me is the biggest surprise of this poll

[rjs131]

Jordan the reality is that most people wont be aware of the releases of policy from National. If you ask the average person on teh street about either those or Dan Carter's calf, who is out of the rugby and whether Fiji is still in the rugby the rugby will come up trumps. The media here is dominated by the rugby, which i guess has been to the detriment of all the excellent recent work by judith tizard and mark burton.

Seriously, the reality is, labour's performance in the polls is going to be more dictated by how we go in the rugby than anythign the Nats do.

[Thomas]

What is interesting is generally when Lab poll % goes down Greens % goes up and visa versa. This time they have both gone up. That for me is the biggest surprise of this poll

[ak]

About time, but not surprising. The long honeymoon with Key was only sustained by his policy flip-flops and lazy media coverage of National's incessant and petty carping. The next poll will incorporate the bumbling revelations of the true tory agenda and will be utterly devestating for National.
This will leave them with the choice of either appeasing the already-seething rump (and funders) by sticking to the privatisation agenda, or more "innoculations" and craven crawling to the minor parties for partners. Either way they're on a hiding to nothing.

[Thomas]

When will Key get rolled though ? >41%?

[not so sloppy]

"The Nats will be very worried with this, because what it seems to show is that Labour's reframing of John Key last month has had some effect. The satire shows are now a good deal less friendly to the Opposition leader,"

It pays to read the small print and not just the headline Jordan:
NZ HERALD: Mr Key is still close, and has actually risen to 42.2 per cent, up 3.2 points on a month ago.

HA HA

[George Darroch]

Actually, since I was last in the country, Labour has supported a reasonable number of private members bills from Green MPs, some at political cost, which may have dispelled much the bad blood which Labour has generated.

OTOH, many of NZ Labour's current policies stand in direct opposition to things which the Greens and Maori Party hold central...

"National-Green-Maori? I don't think so" Fair enough, but if being shunned for reactionary right wing parties two elections in a row has taught the Greens anything, it's that they can, and will, stay outside of Government if necessary to keep to their principles.

[Matthew Pilott]

This poll was also before National started talking about policy - they had an easy ride criticising a government and public service that dug itself a few holes to trip up over. Now that the work starts for National they're going to struggle to get their message across - either they'll hide teh true agenda as we've seen recently, or they'll publish it in plain sight and hope noone notices. I think people will take notice, and won't be responsive - for a start the spectre of ABN-AMRO schools doesn't appeal, and for good reason.

There's only one way that National will go when it's polling at fourty four point eight, and I'll enjoy watching them going down.

[mike f]

People won't put a National party into government until it says what it will do, and where it will spend money. That's the underpinning of New Zealand's electoralism - we're a strong-state society; we want the government to spend money on things. I've heard ten times as many people wanting the surplus spent on things like health and student loans as I have people wanting it given back to them in tax cuts. In fact, I would go so far as to say: name me an election in New Zealand - any election since 1935 - where tax was the deciding issue. 1960? I guess. So, once.

National has to win in its own right, to be able to go into a battle of ideas with chains swinging, and not just pretend it can ride over the line by talking a mouthful of cash about David Benson-Pope every ten weeks. To be honest - a lot of people I know are comparing John Key to Mark Latham - he's likeable, but he's a bit thin on the ground; he's not yet noticed that (1) he has to be able to put a coaltion together, because the most his party can get is probably 41%, and (2) Helen Clark can and will campaign on her record, and it's formidable.

Formidable to the point where Key will have to promise to keep Kiwisaver, cheap doctor's visits, the Cullen Fund, interest free student loans and free childcare. That rolls back tax cuts, (the central point of difference so far) leaving Clark free to campaign on a platform of "who would be the better PM?", and even when his party is at 50% in the polls, Key can't muster much more than 1/3 preferred PM. His weak points are too weak - nobody knows what he'll do, he's nice, but also prone to allegations of being insubstantial and, as a sticker campaign around Te Aro has already pointed out, a circus-league backflipper.

And add to that that when the tax cut difference goes, Clark can send Peters down the right side to pick off the Brash tories, leaving Key to defend their 2005 platform, sending Clark up the middle so she can reassure suburban liberals that she's nice and not interested in racial politics. And that's how the next Labour-New Zealand First administration will win the election.