Roy Morgan welcome news

Roy Morgan aren't one of my regular polls, but coming into Labour Party conference it is nice to see that their latest poll, taken 1-14 October, has the gap between Labour and National falling to 6.5% with Labour up six points to 39% and National down three points to 45.5%.

Of course we have an MMP electoral system. In this poll the left bloc vote is 46.5%, the right vote is 46%, the self-declared centre vote is 4.5% and the Maori Party is on 2%.

Talk about close. The same bloc relations (left being green labour and progs, right being nats and act, centre being nzfirst and unitedfuture, and mp out on their own) in recent polls are (and I think I have missed one or two!)

NZH Sept - 46.8L, 44.8+?R, ?C, ?MP

TV3 Sept - 44L, 48.5R, 3.3C, 1.8MP

ON/CB Sept - 44L, 50R, 4C, 3MP

The modest lift in the Left's performance is heartening, but even without it the next election was always going to be close. I find it somewhat entertaining that commentators in New Zealand's media have just assumed, because of National being ahead of Labour, that that could somehow determine the election result, so far out from an election.

Comments

[tim barclay]

And then something else happens - Mallard and Benson Pope and a difficult reshuffle and much else.

[burt]

Jordan

You said in Jan that you were going to add the Morgan poll to your blog. Since then you have said you don't cover the Morgan poll. Just be honets Jordan, you cover the Morgan Poll when the results fit with your world view.

http://jtc.blogs.com/just_left/2007/01/morgan_poll_jan.html

"OK so I am going to add in the Morgan Poll this year to the polling coverage on the blog."

[Policy Parrot]

This poll delivers another Labour-led government if it were the actual results.

I have it:
Labour 49
JAP 1
Greens 9
United Future 2

Opposition:
National 57
Act 1
Maori Party 4
NZ First 0

It is very likely that the Maori Party would remain the 'last cab of the rack' in most scenarios, and Peter Dunne isn't anything if not interested in semi-permanent power. If NZ First makes it back to get 5%, it's votes may have to come from the CR.

[burt]

Policy Parrot.

If United future went back to bed with the natural allies of his core electorate and the Maori party wanted to be in power rather than opposition, it could easily look very sad for the left minority. This scenario is yields a greater majority under the ON/CB Poll.

As you said, Winston's votes may come from National so who would have imagined him in bed with Labour. Well he's not really is he, his part of but not in or something like that... Don't rule out a Maori/National coalition while we are being governed by Labour with two center right appendages... anything can happen in the name of grasping the reigns.

[ak]

heh heh you never give up do you burt... "If United future went back to bed with the natural allies of his core electorate", "Maori/National coalition", "Winston...he's not really is he, his part of but not in or something like that..." oh please, classic, never stop burt!

[clever dick]

National would only need a confidence and supply agreement with the Maori Party to govern... Labour needs agreement with at least three parties