Today's reports (NZ Herald, Stuff) of a threat by the Maori Party to walk away from its agreement with National over a lack of Treaty protections in the asset sales regime is potentially high stakes stuff - but only potentially.
It looks like the party is raising the temperature prior to iwi consultations being run by government next month, to put pressure on National to be open to iwi involvement and concerns in how the part-privatisations are structured.
That would lead one to say this is just a bargaining position and not a serious threat to the government's stability.
However, this may be an underestimate. With a potent new threat to their pan-Maori ambitions arising from the Mana Party, and with Tariana Turia's track record of walking out of parties or governments when it suits her, it may be a mistake to write this off as mere bluster.
The things which drew the Maori Party into a confidence and supply agreement with National won't change in the short run and so the odds must be on them staying.
But what those things really are has always been beyond me. The Maori Party is propping up a conservative, deflationist government whose policies are hurting their support base quite badly. Maybe there is a changing analysis in the party that is starting to acknowledge this, and is determined to not leave the field open for the Mana Party to seek the support of those who voted Maori Party in 2011.
Either way, it's an unpleasant and unwelcome distraction to the "Everything's Fine, Nothing To See Here" political management which John Key adroitly managed in his first term. I shall be intrigued to see how the story develops.
Comments