Just Left

Labour's Q1 2012 in review, Q2 in prospect

Labour has had a good start to 2012. Helped by a government shifting to the right — and looking a little shifty to boot — the task of introducing the new leadership to the public has begun, and the party's organisational review is engaging members and supported in the kind of stimulating, challenging conversation we all hoped for.

David Shearer's first big speech was ok too. He talked about the right things; he talked about them in the right way.

The right thing to start with is the economy, because economic change is at the core of what Labour exists to do. Solving the great challenges of sustainable environments and more equal societies is in huge part a task of choosing and shaping markets, both productive and financial.

Education was well stated because it is integral to the development of citizens as people, and helps with the economy too. And in the parts dealing with Education, David tackled another issue Labour needs to think through and address carefully: the fact that some people we would like to support us think that we are as a party more concerned with the people who work in public services than in the public they are meant to serve.

The staffing at parliament is being sorted, caucus is well on the way to gelling after the leadership contest, and the review is providing people with the first chance since I joined in 1997 to have a good, hard and honest look at ourselves.

All in all, an ok start. Most of it is pointing in the right direction.

That's good, because Q2 is going to be a heck of a lot harder.

The biggest test will be in our response to the Budget, due in late May. National will continue with its austerity drive. Labour should challenge the logic of that, without committing to anything. We don't know what the economy will be doing in 2014, and can't define our policy on that this year.

Hard stuff. Get it wrong and you are either going to tie your hands behind you for the rest of the term, or be accused of having no alternative.

Other things will be the party's six regional conferences, where members will scrutinise the draft proposals for organisational change from the review, and start debating our policy framework for 2014. The scandals and fights that are bubbling up from National will also be important to handle right.

Another hard task is the construction of a longer term take on Labour's story.

It does not take a political savant to acknowledge that at last year's election, people were not clear about what Labour stood for, whose side we were on, or how our specific policies tackled the country's problems to improve people's lives.

We have to be much better at that this term. I know that the new leadership team knows that.

It's not easy because it isn't entirely obvious how you resolve one central dilemma. The policy framework was about right, but the public thrashed us. Shifts in policy are an easy signal that a party has changed. We have to convince the public that we get it that we lost last time and that we have learned the lesson,

That connects to another tricky issue; being clear about why we lost and what the lesson is.

Getting that right is a precursor to getting the narrative right.

Initial signs are ok, but the speeches David has lined up over coming months will show how it's going. He will also need to think about different ways of building that narrative; one way that Labour in NZ hasn't used before would be to consult supporters and members directly about some options for this.

Overall though, things are going well. A good first quarter done; a challenging second quarter looms.

Shearer's first speech

I got up this morning and watched the video stream of David Shearer's first major positioning speech of the year. It was a good effort. He delivered it well, and it had a freshness of tone and lightness of style I find refreshing and easy to read and to listen to.

The substance is good too. The focus on the economy and education is well merited: they are interlinked, and in the economic sphere, doing the same things is going to lead to the same results.  That is why we need big changes, and that is why he's talking about them.

I also agree with the signal to review the tax-free threshold promise we took to last year's election.  At $1.4bn a year when fully rolled out, that was a very big tax cut. I would be surprised if we can afford anything like it in 2014.

Some key extracts:

We're going to keep on doing things the way we are ... for as long as the supply of lambs holds out.

We're going to go right on relying on property market bubbles and a small basket of primary produce exports to earn our living and we're going to go on borrowing money to pay for a standard of living we can't afford.

We owe too much. We all know that.

We earn too little. We all know that too.

Far too many of our eggs are in the one basket.

We all know that.

And anyone who tells you we can make things better here, without making big changes, is dreaming.

New Zealanders can cope with the truth.

So let's be honest with ourselves.

The honest truth is that the Christchurch recovery cheques from the insurance companies will only help us a bit.

The honest truth is that asset sales - even by the most generous measure - will hardly help us at all.

The honest truth is that a commodities boom, even if it keeps on rolling, isn't enough on its own to pay for what we need.

The honest truth is that merging and restructuring government departments will simply not cut it.

And the honest truth is that the economic plan New Zealand is following at the moment has more missing from it than it has in it.

He locates the positioning in the idea that things need to change. That is indeed the Labour way - not backward looking or status quo.

If I had to sum up what we need to do in one sentence I'd say this: we need to make a new New Zealand.

That's what the next Labour government will be about.

That means looking at everything through a whole new lens.

Everything.

It means questioning the comfortable assumptions we make.

I think the "we" there is New Zealand, but it's also the Labour Party - and he's right on both counts.

We all have an instinctive sense in New Zealand that everyone deserves a go, and that everyone needs to pull their weight and contribute.

Labour believes that. It always has.

Don't let anyone tell you different.

We say two things:

Number one: our community must take care of the needy. They deserve a share of the pie.

And if people fall on hard times, we will help.

But equally importantly, number two: everyone who can help to make that pie needs to be involved, and fairly rewarded for doing it.

Rights and responsibilities, that's the social contract that binds our society.

A precis of the next speech perhaps, and a nice summation of what Labour believes.

Have a read of the whole speech. It's worth a look.