Just Left

Did you hear the rumour that Hone will be singing his defence at his disciplinary meeting?

(to the tune of "What a Wonderful World" by Sam Cooke)

Don't know much about history
Don't know much about gay Paree
Don't know much about a dumb rule book
Don't know much about the perk I took

While I don’t know what I told all youse
I know I had a bloody good excuse
What a wonderful world this would be

Don't know much about geography
Don't know much about the Champs Elysees
Don't know much about pakeha
Don't know what the mofos get peeved for

But I did know that if Tari knew
That I didn’t really have the flu
What a horrible end I would meet

Now I don't claim to be always prudent
But I'm trying to be
So maybe by being prudent, Tari
I can win your love for me

Don't know much about history
Don't know much about gay Paree
Don't know much about a dumb rule book
Don't know much about the perk I took

But I know I do what I want
Skip a meeting for a free croissant
What a wonderful world this would be

La ta ta ta ta ta ta
(History)
Ooh ooh ooh ooh ooh ooh
(gay paree)
La ta ta ta ta ta ta
(Dumb rule book)
Ooh ooh ooh ooh ooh ooh
(Perk I took)

But I know I do what I want
Skip a meeting for a free croissant
What a wonderful world this would be

- Dolan

 

Espiner on the Money?

An interesting blog post from TVNZ Political Editor Guyon Espiner today:

"Buzz goes flat at the Beehive"

Parliament is in session but the Press Gallery is unusually quiet.

In the white concrete annex to the Beehive, where the nation's political scribes reside, you'll find them, slunk down in their seats bemoaning the lack of real political news or skulking about the corridors perplexed at the paucity of policy being generated by the Beehive.

Normally the hacks would be saved at about 4pm on a Monday when John Key holds his post-Cabinet press conference, allowing journalists the opportunity to tackle the Prime Minister on the government's latest policy and pronouncements.

But Cabinet, I'm told, had a light agenda on Monday. And that's my point. Cabinet, it seems, has had a pretty light agenda for the last month.

...


I know too that this is a conservative government and that as the name suggests they tend to be about maintaining the status quo.

But surely I'm wrong? Surely the government isn't out of ideas? Surely, not after half a year in office?

I am not so sure about this. The Government seems to be good at getting other people to do things it thinks might not be popular, and thus what may look a bit like not doing much on the political news front may not be the case in substance.

You can think of a few examples - the deep reviews of regulation in many areas, with a bias towards restoring the primacy of Commerce Act approaches instead of sector specific regulation that can actually work; making CEs do the hard work of firing public servants instead of the government taking responsibility for it; cutting the guts out of public transport funding in Auckland but only trumpeting the increase in roading building funds.

There are probably more in your area. The line by line reviews were part of it too, allowing a "big saving" to be trumpeted at Budget time, but the effects of the real cuts (e.g. to support for gifted students) to be dribbled out later.

So from a news perspective Guyon could be right. But in substance I'm not sure he is. That implies more, but harder, work for the journos to do: hunting down stories and getting them out there. And given the state of commercial broadcasting including TVNZ and the pressure all across the media to cut costs, how likely is that sort of depth? That,  however, is a story for another day.

Budget '10 and Budget '11

I've been thinking about the government's political strategy in the lead up to next year's election (as you do).

It's clear that this year's Budget was all about not scaring the horses - with two horses in particular the focus of the affair. Horse 1 was the general centrist voter: the message to them was, "we're not slashing". Horse 2 was the ratings agencies: the message to them was, "we're going to get on top of that debt curve".

What about the out-years? Well, there are cuts in public services in the outyears and they will start to hurt. But I don't believe they will come to pass. Instead, I think that the next couple of Budgets will see the government coming up with "new money" to avoid cuts. 

They could do that in numerous ways. They might seek to sell state assets to the NZ Super Fund. They might rely on the Treasury's forecasts being too pessimistic. They might decide that with the glut of debt on the market internationally, a slight downgrading in NZ's path back to surplus can be sustained. 

They might do all sorts of things, but what they won't do is allow electorally damaging cuts to actually happen - at least, not prior to the '11 election. For it is clear now, after six months, that the prime focus of Mr Key's National Government is Mr Key's National Government. The agenda is re-election. The aim is power. The desire is to win. There is not much else there. Everything else comes behind that driving ambition for National. 

After years of solid investment that have undone the damage of the last nine-year-slicing-at-the-state National government, people recognise and appreciate the level of public services they have. They only elected National when it made the case that it would not damage them like it did last time. It therefore faces serious political risks if it does something else. Which is why they will, in my view, flex the budget and drop this year's cuts as it becomes politic to do so.

Bearing in mind that focus, and notwithstanding the hypocrisy of this next point, the positioning National seeks to impose on Labour is already clear. "Whack it on the bill" is the motif. National will try to portray anything Labour proposes as "adding to an unsustainable debt that our kids will have to pay back," regardless of whether their own policies have already been doing that or not. 

That's something for Labour to watch out for - we cannot be seen or in fact be, fiscally imprudent come the next election. I believe that every promise we make will have to be funded, with cuts to something else or new revenue. Otherwise we'd be handing National a gift horse we don't need to give.

More importantly of course is that the '11 campaign will and should be about the future - and National's theft of it from the next generation through their short-sighted and reactionary economic, environmental and social policy. But to focus on that debate we need to leave no hostages to fortune.

Credit Where Credit's Due

It was heartening to hear the Prime Minister yesterday talk about the repeal of Section 59 as a success:

"There's only been the one now documented case and I'm satisfied that the law is working."

John Key could have just as easily jumped on the far-right bandwagon and claim to be taking a stand against the 'nanny state',* but instead chose to look at the facts - that there are no examples of 'good parents' being criminalised for disciplining their children. This stance is entirely consistent with the statement which Key made when the bill passed.

With both the Labour and the National Party supporting the current legislation, a return to a legal defence of child abuse is supported only by the ACT Party and a few far right fringe groups.**

The Family First-led referendum is a complete waste of money, and not only because 96% of our MPs belong to parties which oppose it, but because the question being asked is loaded and confusing, and doesn't address the legislation in question at all.

It was music to my ears to hear the referendum organiser, Larry Baldock get mauled by Sean Plunket this morning. Plunket was at his attack dog best and didn't give Baldock an inch. Interestingly, Baldock was unable to give an example of a parent being criminalised for smacking their children, until he was pushed, when he resorted to James Mason's case - Mason was convicted of punching his four-year-old son in the side of the head, but according to Baldock was either entitled to punch his four-year-old in the head or was let down by the justice system.

Vote Yes for a Law that's Working.

* National's Wellington Central candidate, Steven Franks used the 'anti-smacking bill' as an example of the 'nanny state' multiple times on the campaign trail last year, despite the entire National Party caucus voting for the third reading. Scary that the former ACT MP is only two heart-beats away from being a National list MP.

** I would tell you who those groups are (other than Family First), but the Vote No website is returning a '401 Authorization Required' at the moment. Incidentally, it's very difficult to separate Family First from the Vote No crowd - their tweets seem to go up at almost exactly the same time. The Vote Yes website is up and running though.

Mt Albert result a solid start

A textbook, low-risk, well organised, hugely-resourced Labour campaign in Mt Albert came to its inevitable conclusion on Saturday night with a big win for David Shearer, pulling a massive majority and 62% of the vote in a reasonable by-election turnout to become the fourth Member of Parliament for Mt Albert.

I'm very pleased with this win. Did turnout doorknocking in Pt Chev on Saturday, and the response - when people were home (Auckland's nicest day in a while, was Saturday) - was really good. Given the demographics of the parts I was doorknocking in, that was a good sign.

As the first electoral test since the 08 general election which we lost, the by-election is a major fillip to Labour suppoters' morale. More important, it was a good training ground for many people, especially Young Labour activists, who joined the party last year and were hungry for more campaigns experience. They learned a lot and did a great deal of good work. 

Phil Goff also did very well - his energetic on the ground campaigning went down very well with the party organisation in and around the seat. Phil is a genuinely talented campaigner: he's direct and easy to talk with, and has stacks of energy which he applies in an up-beat way. This result is a vindication for him as well as for David Shearer, who performed very well as a candidate and is going to be a great addition to the Labour caucus.

What Labour showed is that when you campaign on relevant issues and have good candidates you can win elections. When you listen to the public's concerns, engage with them thoroughly, and take the feedback you get on board, people vote for you. Not remarkable but always reassuring.

The close of the campaign along with the close of the Worth affair hopefully means we can now get back to serious politics. Last month's deeply damaging Budget; the stupidity of the way the Super City is being imposed... all these things need a tighter focus from the media and the public. Labour's job is to try and restore that sharper prioritisation of the things that should matter most to the future of the country.

Mt Albert's result is a solid start. Now, let's get to it.

Toasted

Richard Worth's political career is over.

Will he resign from Parliament this week, next week, or the week after?

If I were him, I would resign today, based on what is in the media so far and the rumours which are swirling around Wellington today.

Key should have sacked him weeks ago, but I am glad he has effectively done so now.

Electoral Law

I heard Ms Lee on National Radio this morning confirming that her own company’s equipment was used in the making of the You Tube video. She does not deny that her commercial equipment was used.

Now- I’m not an expert in all areas of electoral law- but my common sense tells me that, even when goods and services are donated for free, you must declare their commercial value on your electoral return. It’s the same if a mate at a radio station gives you free advertising isn’t it? You still have to declare it’s value.

Is this the nature of the Green’s complaint to the Electoral Commission?

And what is the punishment for this if it is indeed an offense?

I know, I know- scream pledge card and whatever else you want- I am genuinely interested in the technical side of things here and how the law works.

Equal Opportunity

Equal opportunities- not a National Party value, definitely a Labour one.

 

National don’t need Peter Dunne. They don’t need the Maori Party. The Act Party will not let this National Government fall. And I suspect it will take a whole lot more to peeve Peter Dunne off before he lets go of his cushy little revenue job. Appointing Rankin to the Families Commission- I’m sure the right are loving the reaction we are giving them on this. We on the left are mad (and madly happy in some ways, as the more the Government makes these polarising appointments- the more they give us to campaign on). Leighton Smith on Newstalk ZB this morning was saying how great it would be if Christine Rankin was the Prime Minister (yes, yes, please let it happen).

 

Now to the Minister responsible- I watch Paula in the house (when she’s there), and it is plain for all to see how green she really is. Today I saw her stumble on a question. The speaker asked her to answer it more fully, and then when she blurted out a whole lot of um’s and ah’s and almost said too much of an answer, she took direction from a colleague sitting near her about what to say. So unsure of herself is she, that more senior members are coaching her in the house on what to say. She’s not good on her feet- she is panicked. What I see is a Minister who is struggling to be honest- Paula wants to be honest- she thinks her tell it like it is approach is refreshing. Problem is- if she says too much she will dump herself and her party in it- and she knows it- hense her panic. Oh well, as a lot of people around me are saying- give her rope long enough, and she’ll hang herself with it.

 

In appointing Christine Rankin to the Families Commission, Paula is trying to get a reaction and bait us on the left. And boy has she got plenty of reaction. Well, I can see the writing on the wall. It started in part when Cindy Kiro was ‘let go’ (I’m guessing the end of her employment was by mutual agreement?) as children’s commissioner. Christine Rankin won’t be the only one gunning for the end of the Families Commission. Act will be calling for an end to this Commission. Some within National will be calling for its end, as well as all the usual commentators and suspects.

 

But, to the point I really want to make:

 

Make no mistake, the Ministry of Women’s Affairs is for the chopping block. It may not be today, it may not be tomorrow, but it’s coming. Equal opportunity is not a National Party value. It is very much a Labour one.

Mt Albert By-election: it will be Labour.

Labour's position as the only Opposition Party in the current Parliament, and only one of the important parties standing a non-list MP candidate, is already reaping dividends in terms of the result that is likely in the seat.

Of course, the seat was always likely to be a Labour one. It is at the heart of Labour's electoral coalition, a rainbow hue of mixed ethnicities, origins, and a substantial and grounded liberal base that is where Labour finds very strong support indeed quite outside its traditional socio-economic bases.

I was not concerned with the gap betwen Helen Clark's majority and the relative standings of the party vote last year, or at the current polling. This is a seat which is Labour heartland and the fact that Labour won the party vote there when the tide was strongly against the outgoing government does tell you something.

National's selection of Melissa Lee was the penultimate nail in National's coffin. She is, by my observation of her in broadcasting media, a hectoring, shrill, vapid candidate. On Q&A yesterday she was truly awful: she had some shoddy sound bites, and was slipping and sliding her way around the Waterview tunnels that are a key issue in the by-election.

The final nail was her admission this morning on bFM that she does support the eviction of local residents to build an above-ground motorway for the connection. 

This is the wrong National Party candidate, running on the wrong issues. She will not win the seat. David Shearer will be the MP for Mt Albert on the 13th of June, and I am very much looking forward to seeing him in the parliamentary Labour Party at last. A man of genuine calibre and warmth will be joining the House of Representatives, and that's great for New Zealand as well as for Mt Albert.

All Shearer and the Labour campaign now have to do is listen, engage with the public, keep talking about the issues that matter to Mt Albert residents. I have full confidence that they and we will do exactly that.

Drug Driving?

Trevor Mallard is asking a few questions on what people think about drug-driving and its treatment by Police compared with drink-driving.

Give him your feedback which he'll take to the Labour caucus tomorrow:

http://blog.labour.org.nz/index.php/2009/05/10/drug-driving-what-do-you-think/