Just Left

An election today = a Labour/Green Govt (there or thereabouts)

Read it and cheer/weep, depending on your point of view... from Roy Morgan.

ON/CB Poll: Feb 2008

The latest One News / Colmar Brunton poll was published by TVNZ on Sunday night. The results are as follows, with the brackets showing the results from the December, October and September polls:

Lab - 34% (35, 37, 39)
Nat - 53% (54, 49, 49)
Grn - 6% (4.6, 6, 5)
NZF - 1.7% (2.2, 1.9, 3)
MP - 3.0% (1.7, 2.8, 3)
UF - 0.2% (0.5, 0.4, 1)
ACT - 0.9% (0.8, 0.6, 1)

The Preferred Prime Minister numbers are as follows:

Helen Clark - 27% (30, 33, 33)
John Key - 36% (35, 33, 31)
Winston Peters - 4% (2, 3, 4)

This is a different poll result than the others this year, and shows essentially no change over the summer.

They all show that Labour is the underdog for this campaign and has a lot of work to do between now and the election.

ON/CB Poll: Dec 2007

The latest One News / Colmar Brunton poll was published by TVNZ on Sunday night. The results are as follows, with the brackets showing the results from the October, September and August:

Lab - 35% (37, 39, 36)
Nat - 54% (49, 49, 53)
Grn - 4.6% (6, 5, 5)
NZF - 2.2% (1.9, 3, 2.6)
MP - 1.7% (2.8, 3, 1)
UF - 0.5% (0.4, 1, 0.5)
ACT - 0.8% (0.6, 1, 1.2)

The Preferred Prime Minister numbers are as follows:

Helen Clark - 30% (33, 33, 29)
John Key - 35% (33, 31, 35)
Winston Peters - 2% (3, 4, 4)

The story for this poll is largely the same as for TV3. Not huge shifts in the numbers but adding up to a very large gap for Labour to overcome next year. The point of frustration for me is how much of the current situation is self inflicted damage on Labour's part, compared with actual genuine progress on National's part.

It will require a very clean start to 2008 and tight disciplined competence to pull this back. The good thing is there are a lot of people in Labour ready to do just that.

TV3-TNS Poll: December 2007

The latest TV3-TNS was released on Sunday night.  The results are below, with the September, July and May results in the brackets following.

Lab - 36% (37, 36, 36)
Nat - 51% (47, 48, 48)
Grn - 4.8% (7, 6, 8)
NZF - 2.2% (3.2, 2.6, 2.4)
Act - 0.9% (1.5, 1.2, 0.5)
UF - 0.7% (0.1, 1.1, 0.6)
MP - 2.8% (1.8, 2.7, 3.7)

In terms of the Preferred Prime Minister ratings,

Clark - 28% (28, 31, 30)
Key - 33% (32, 31, 32)
Peters - 4% (4, 4, 5)

Not a good set of results, though not an enormous change from the September poll. The gap between the two main parties is now very large. Since September Labour's political management has been AWOL again, with bizarre outbursts from some ministers, and the ongoing self inflicted management problems of the Electoral Finance legislation. Not the nicest way to go into the summer!

ON/CB Poll: October 2007

The latest One News / Colmar Brunton poll was published by TVNZ on 14 October. The results are as follows, with the brackets showing the results from the September, August, July and May results:

Lab - 37% (39, 36, 36, 31)
Nat - 49% (49, 53, 52, 56)
Grn - 6% (5, 5, 5, 6)
NZF - 1.9% (3, 2.6, 2.3, 2.1)
MP - 2.8% (3, 1.0, 2.6, 2.9)
UF - 0.4% (1, 0.5, 0.6, 1)
ACT - 0.6% (1, 1.2, 0.3, 0.4)

The Preferred Prime Minister numbers are as follows:

Helen Clark - 33% (33, 29, 29, 27)
John Key - 33% (31, 35, 35, 38)
Winston Peters - 3% (4, 4, 2, 2)

Very different to the Roy Morgan poll which sampled over a wider range but including the same dates. Taking into account the traditional bias to National in this poll, however, the results are OK.

Roy Morgan welcome news

Roy Morgan aren't one of my regular polls, but coming into Labour Party conference it is nice to see that their latest poll, taken 1-14 October, has the gap between Labour and National falling to 6.5% with Labour up six points to 39% and National down three points to 45.5%.

Of course we have an MMP electoral system. In this poll the left bloc vote is 46.5%, the right vote is 46%, the self-declared centre vote is 4.5% and the Maori Party is on 2%.

Talk about close. The same bloc relations (left being green labour and progs, right being nats and act, centre being nzfirst and unitedfuture, and mp out on their own) in recent polls are (and I think I have missed one or two!)

NZH Sept - 46.8L, 44.8+?R, ?C, ?MP

TV3 Sept - 44L, 48.5R, 3.3C, 1.8MP

ON/CB Sept - 44L, 50R, 4C, 3MP

The modest lift in the Left's performance is heartening, but even without it the next election was always going to be close. I find it somewhat entertaining that commentators in New Zealand's media have just assumed, because of National being ahead of Labour, that that could somehow determine the election result, so far out from an election.

NZ Herald Digipoll: Sept 07

On Saturday, the Herald carried the results of their latest Digipoll. The results are below with those of the previous four polls (August, July, June and May 07) in brackets in that order:

Lab - 39.6% (36.8, 42.0, 40.1, 33.6)
Nat - 44.8% (50.3, 48.5, 48.2, 50.9)
Grn - 7.2% (6, 4, 4, 6.1)
NZF - ?% (2.8, 2, 3, 3.2)
UF - ?% (0.0, 0.3, 0.3, 0.8)
ACT - ?% (0.9, 0.4, 0.6, 0.7)
MP - ?% (2.3, 1.8, 2.4, 1.7)

The preferred PM ratings show:

Clark at 46.8% (47.3, 48.7, 45.8, 42.1)
Key at 42.2% (39, 37.9, 42.2, 45.5)
Peters at ??% (6.9, 7.0, 5.2, 5.4)

This poll shows a big turnaround against National, just as the last one showed one against Labour. This is less expected than the previous month's turnaround, as far as I'm concerned.

The Nats will be very worried with this, because what it seems to show is that Labour's reframing of John Key last month has had some effect. The satire shows are now a good deal less friendly to the Opposition leader, and the government seems to have dramatically improved its political management.

In this poll, if it were borne out on election day, one would expect to see a Labour/Greens government supported by Maori Party MPs. Last month, the only possibility was a National government.

Next month's suite of polls will be interesting. Will the tide continue to go Labour's way or will this be a false dawn? The last week's events will do the Nats more damage, because they reveal aspects of political deception and because they remind voters of what they like least about the Nats: their ideological extremism. So I would hope for further progress based on National's SNAFUs, the popular welcoming of Labour's climate change announcements, and good press for Helen in Europe this week.

ON/CB Poll: Sept 2007

The latest One News / Colmar Brunton poll was published by TVNZ on Sunday night. The results are as follows, with the brackets showing the results from the August, July and May results:

Lab - 39% (36, 36, 31)
Nat - 49% (53, 52, 56)
Grn - 5% (5, 5, 6)
NZF - 3% (2.6, 2.3, 2.1)
MP - 3% (1.0, 2.6, 2.9)
UF - 1% (0.5, 0.6, 1)
ACT - 1% (1.2, 0.3, 0.4)

The Preferred Prime Minister numbers are as follows:

Helen Clark - 33% (29, 29, 27)
John Key - 31% (35, 35, 38)
Winston Peters - 4% (4, 2, 2)

One News explains this change, which is an improvement for Labour, in the context of high visibility for Helen Clark on international issues, and the impact of the scrutiny which Labour applied to John Key.

I think they are probably right. When you look at this lineup, you do see a shift that will be welcomed by the government. It has the left Lab-Grn bloc on 44% support, and the right bloc on 51% (Nat, UF, Act). I have left NZF and the Maori Party out of that left-right bloc measure for two reasons. First it is not clear that NZF will return to parliament post election, though on past form they may well scrape back in. Second, while in the past I have categorised the Maori Party as a right conservative party, I do think these days that that has more to do with Tariana Turia's poisoned relationship with Labour than anything else. The party has developed an impressive depth quickly, and I think eventually it will end up in the centre left family.

If that was the case - if NZF didn't return and if the Maori Party ends up supporting Labour-led administrations - then the left-right split is 47/51.

In other words, very close indeed. The last few election campaigns have shown how volatile campaigns can be, and how parties with large and sustained poll leads through popular leaders can make mistakes such that they lose a good 15 points during a campaign.

History never repeats, so to speak, but consider the government's agenda. Major meat on the bones of climate change policy is coming up this week, according to media. There will be a reshuffle, which I hope will be extensive enough to show some fresh faces on the front bench. There will be a Labour Party conference in the weeks after that.  The PM will be visible on a few international trips.

Perhaps, just perhaps, there is a bigger glimmer of light for Labour than for some months. I would not want to overstate the case, but from where I am sitting now, this poll is OK news.

TV3-TNS Poll: September 2007

The latest TV3-TNS was released recently.  The results are below, with the July, May, April and February results in the brackets following.

Lab - 37% (36, 36, 36, 44)
Nat - 47% (48, 48, 42, 41)
Grn - 7% (6, 8, 6, 8)
NZF - 3.2% (2.6, 2.4, 1.2, 2.8)
Act - 1.5% (1.2, 0.5, 1.3, 0.8)
UF - 0.1% (1.1, 0.6, 0.9, 0.8)
MP - 1.8% (2.7, 3.7, 2.7, 2.0)

In terms of the Preferred Prime Minister ratings,

Clark - 28% (31, 30, 37, 35)
Key - 32% (31, 32, 28, 24)
Peters - 4% (4, 5, 4, 5)

This is a result I would describe as "OK". The long stable patch in Labour's poll rating in this poll, and National's improvement, have both narrowed. The gap between the two major parties is 10 points, as opposed to 13.5 points in the Digipoll ten days ago. The continued resilience of the Greens is also something Labour can be pleased about.

I'll be interested to see the detailed numbers that are usually released by TNS on this poll. The leadership characteristics numbers could be quite interesting; they might show if Labour's critique of Key last month has had an impact.

The next bit of good news is the PM's comments in the media that a reshuffle is on the way. Good! The bigger the better. It is time for Labour to show a fresh set of faces around Helen Clark in the run up to the next general election.

NZ Herald Digipoll: August 07

At some point in the last few days the Herald carried the results of their latest Digipoll. The results are below with those of the previous two polls I have records for (July, June and May 07) in brackets in that order:

Lab - 36.8% (42.0, 40.1, 33.6)
Nat - 50.3% (48.5, 48.2, 50.9)
Grn - 6% (4, 4, 6.1)
NZF - 2.8% (2, 3, 3.2, 3.1)
UF - 0.0% (0.3, 0.3, 0.8)
ACT - 0.9% (0.4, 0.6, 0.7)
MP - 2.3% (1.8, 2.4, 1.7)

The preferred PM ratings show:

Clark at 47.3% (48.7, 45.8, 42.1)
Key at 39% (37.9, 42.2, 45.5)
Peters at 6.9% (7.0, 5.2, 5.4)

This poll shows a big turnaround against Labour compared with the last such poll in July, which is not entirely unexpected.

National has run a clever (if misleading) campaign on the electoral finance bill. National had their Conference which went OK for Key (I think that was this month). Labour had the disastrous David Benson-Pope imbroglio, which didn't do anyone any favours at all.

The task I said Labour had to meet - being level with National by the end of the year - is presenting an ever larger challenge. The recent diversion into negative attacks on Key may bear fruit later this year or early next. I am not at home and can't get a sense of how this is playing with ordinary people (and please, don't patronise me with your interpretations of that, dear reader - you are not "ordinary people" in anyone's mind).

It's a bit like a broken record. Labour can't afford any more political management snafus. There is only room for tight hard dealing with issues that arise; the obvious need for a reshuffle of the ministry before the end of the year; and beginning to put some meat on the bones of some big policy planks that are still looking a bit thin.

Fortunately, there are (shock horror) quite a few positives. The country's actually still doing pretty well, economically and socially speaking. There are no major policy failures that are a cause to chuck the government out next year. That means that most of what is wrong is in Labour's control to fix, if it can do so. The factors that are outside the party's control - Key etc - it just needs to diminish as advantages for the opposition.